berekening van 'der spiegel', mocht de euro vallen:
http://biflatie.nl/artikelen/69-eurocri ... euro-valt-
het origineel:
http://www.spiegel.de/international/eur ... 40634.html
snip
"in the first two years following a collapse, the countries in the euro zone would lose 12 percent of their economic output. This corresponds to the loss of more than €1 trillion. It would make the recession that followed the bankruptcy of investment bank Lehmann Brothers seem like a minor industrial accident by comparison. Even after five years, say the ING experts, economic output in the euro zone would still be significantly lower than normal.
The consequences would also be catastrophic in Germany, as the German Finance Ministry concluded in a study commissioned by Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble, a member of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU). The recovery and economic miracle would abruptly come to an end, and instead banks and companies would start collapsing like dominoes, after having to write off receivables and investments.
The German Finance Ministry's prognosis is even grimmer than that of the ING experts. According to their scenarios, in the first year following a euro collapse, the German economy would shrink by up to 10 percent and the ranks of the unemployed would swell to more than 5 million people. The officials were so horrified by their conclusions that they kept all of their analyses under lock and key, for fear that the costs of rescuing the euro could spin out of control. "Compared to such scenarios, a rescue, no matter how expensive it is, seems to be the lesser evil," says one Finance Ministry official.
...
German citizens haven't recognized yet what an abyss they are facing. If the euro collapses, not only will many people lose their livelihoods, but German retirement pensions will also be threatened. The economic success of the last few years would be destroyed, and Germany would fall back into the crisis status of the 1990s.
On the other hand, if the German government gave in to the Southern Europeans' pressure to communitize debt, the risks could even be greater. Instead of an uncontrolled euro crash, Germany could be confronted with an uncontrolled transfer union. Year after year, the Germans would have to transfer sums in the double-digit billions to Southern European countries."