Freegold Forum

Gdx, I am a bull

me too.

volgende maand, bij correctie $POG : mijn winterteen zegt dat we nog es onder de 1200$ gaan.(en bij pariteit)

Dow 20K is behind us as the index is nearing 21K. American stock markets continue their ascent. This doesn't prevent precious metals from firming. Over the past week, gold is up 1.77%, while silver added 2%. Platinum recovered 2.33% after lagging for several weeks, while Palladiium confirms its contrarian stance easing 0.9%. I've been using 24hgold.com for PM prices, since the Kitco.com website has its technical difficulties.

Precious metals and miners diverging
Despite PM metals firming in tandem with the broad stock market, miners have been weaker: the HUI slid 3.8% making HUI/Gold plunge to 0.164, as illustrated by the HUI/Gold graph on the Gold Miner Pulse blog page. Several miners came in with 2016Q4 earnings in line with their own guidance but below market expectations. One may ask whether the latter are realistic considering where PM metal prices were a few months ago. Miners now trade 'gold market neutral', with HUI values almost on the HUI-gold least squares regression line. On the Miners Performance page, last update illustrates the first miner retreat of 2017.

Miner ETFs are weaker across the board, sliding from 2.35% (SIL) to 4% (GOEX).
With a 4.2% loss, our Contributor driven Explorer and Junior Mining spreadsheet is lagging.

Over the long haul, the advance shrinks to 7.78%, though cap weighed that amounts to 30.09%. (Note that including exits, we're in the red.) Despite easing only little, Asanko Gold slid below its entry level. We now have left 9 picks advancing against 10 declining. Last week declines outnumber advances 15 to 4 on our list, with 4 double digit declines; especially the 11.9% weekly decline of Ivanhoe Mines (IVN.TO) is hurting. We are overweight in this miner after it has been outperforming.

NG : 4-6-4

Here we come.

DT speechke deze avond : indices up, goud up : death cat bounce van de € en de mijnen .... ?
Zou me niet verwonderen dat Dow 21 staat vanavond en goud 1290$.

De mijnen geven aan dat er een daling aankomt imo.

Leo3.14 wrote: 28 Feb 2017, 08:54

NG : 4-6-4

Here we come.

DT speechke deze avond : indices up, goud up : death cat bounce van de € en de mijnen .... ?
Zou me niet verwonderen dat Dow 21 staat vanavond en goud 1290$.

De mijnen geven aan dat er een daling aankomt imo.

Dow 21, juist !!


Goud zal rapper onder de 1200$ zijn dan bij 1290$, eilaas.

NG < 4 : comin ' soon = aan de boom schudden imho.(coiling)

Bodemvorming : patience-spel
I like it.

While the Dow made it to 21K, precious metals were dumped last week. The rationale stated is that the FED rate will be hiked earlier than anticipated. Meanwhile the 10Y treasury rate rose to the highest level of the decade, wreaking havoc among bond investment funds.

It's not the first time that precious metal miners uncoupled from rising gold prices as a trend reversal was imminent. Last week the miner slide wasn't too catastrophic with a leg down on Monday and Thursday interrupted by technical recoveries. The HUI slid 7.15% over the week, considerably more than the 1.76% decline of the yellow metal. HUI/Gold further eased to 0.155 as illustrated by the HUI/Gold graph on the Gold Miner Pulse blog page.

Slides among ETFs were slightly worse than that of the HUI: between 8% for GDX and 11.4% for GDXJ, which doesn't bode well for our Contributor driven Explorer and Junior Mining spreadsheet.  Yet we managed to limit the damage to a 6.24% decline, thereby avoiding diving into the red again. Long term we hold on to a timid 1% gain. Among declines the double digit slide of Integra Gold turned long term gains into loss. This brings us to 8 miners/explorers advancing about balancing the loss on 11 others. 

American stock markets reached a ceiling last Tuesday backing off to end the week fractionally lower. Precious metals continued their slide bottoming on Thursday with a modest Friday recovery unable to mend the damage.
Gold ended the week 2.41% lower at $1204.5, while silver shed 5.18% to close at $17.02 on Friday. PGM's also ended beaten up with a 5.52% plunge for Pt to $941 and Pd slid 3.37% to $746. Another 25bp FED rate hike is fully factored in.

Mining investors are convinced the gold correction bottom is in: after Tuesday the HUI ceased leveraging down the gold slide, while the Friday recovery unleashed the bullish sentiment. On balance HUI/Gold is flat over the week - as shown on the gold miner pulse page - despite the yellow metal sliding till Thursday. Miner resilience in anticipation of a gold recovery brought the HUI once more above the HUI-gold least squares regression line. On the Miners Performance page, long term declines again crept into the top quintile.

Among benchmark miner ETF's declines are in line with that of the HUI (2.59%). Only SIL slid 4.8%, which again is less than the 5.2% loss of the white metal. Retreating only 0.57%, our Contributor driven Explorer and Junior Mining spreadsheet is eclipsing its pears. Over the long haul we just manage breaking even (+0.49%). Over the week the 6 advances (led by Osisko) partly offset the 13 declines on the list (with PLG the major drag).

With American stock markets in the doldrums, precious metals have been where the action was last week. On balance gold adds 2% to $1228.8 but on Tuesday the Gold market plunged to a $1198.6 close. Likewise the 2.06% advance for silver to $17.37 only tells half the story. Volatility was King with a Tuesday plunge to $16.84. As precious metals rallied, regaining losses incurred on Wednesday, the speculator mood swing was enlarged among miners, with the HUI up 7.78% for the day. Overdone, some investors may have thought: miners were plagued with profit taking sliding towards the WE, despite the metals confirming their advance. On balance HUI/Gold firms to 0.159 with the HUI advancing 4.7% over the week. The gold miner pulse page provides an in depth analysis.

Advances of the miner ETF's are in line with that of the HUI. Our Contributor driven Explorer and Junior Mining spreadsheet is lagging with a 3.1% advance. The profit taking on Friday (-1.6%) considerably impaired our weekly advance. The long term gain now stands at 3.55%. Over the week, 16 picks are up, but two slid against the trend: Sandstorm gold and Mirasol declined slightly. The double digit rally of Integra Gold wiped away its long term loss. We again have 9 picks up against 10 down over the long haul.

Over the week the 6 advances (led by Osisko) partly offset the 13 declines on the list (with PLG the major drag).

@ Indy :
Uw Griekse egotripperkes blijken brol.
JeePeeMo zit big in Osisko.

Moest ik U zijn dan verkoop ik droogweg mijn EGO kes en verwissel ze voor OSK.
Veel meer potentieel.

But ai 'm not joe, of course..


BTW : naast mijn Appeltjes, ook nog Intellekes ingedaan.
Just getting started....

The gold recovery just may have run its course and the yellow metal is backing of its Wednesday high. The gold/silver ratio is back up to 70, so the white metal rally is even further away, not to mention Platinum which even is down over the week. Moreover the miners have been grinding lower for three consecutive sessions. OK, these are some 'capita selecta' illustrating the 'wall of worry' we need to climb.

The complete picture is that over the week gold still adds 1.15% to $1242.9, silver adds 2.13% to $17.74. Less enthusiasm indeed for platinum, yet off barely $1 to $962; however Pd rallied 4.13% to $807. In the margin, Rhodium (the notorious laggard in the 2016 precious metal rally) is firmly recovering. From its abysmal $585 low last summer (when gold was peaking), the rarest of precious metals now rallies to $910. It thereby even outperforms Palladium.

Even though miners have been grinding lower since Tuesday, the HUI still is up 1.94% since previous Friday, with HUI/gold now at about 0.16. You find fresh graphs on the gold miner pulse page. The Miner Performance Page also got a fresh update. Runner up Osisko Mining -one of the picks in our spreadsheet- now takes the lead from Arizona Mining.

The miner ETF's are a mixed bag, with GDX (+1.1%) lagging the HUI, yet GDXJ and GOEX even threading water; both down fractionally. With a near 3% advance, our contributor driven explorer and junior miner spreadsheet leaves behind its peers. Over the week we have 13 advances against 5 declines, with Eurasian Minerals flat. Ivanhoe Mines (IVN) (+9%) leads the upside, adding to its long term gains. Platinum group Metals slid another 7.8%, deepening its loss. Over the long haul our list is up 6.64%.

Stock markets were ebbing and flowing to a higher close over the week. The same counts for gold and silver: where the yellow metal only posts a tiny 0.51% gain over the week, silver added 2.76%. Yet miners have been lagging: the HUI is down 1% over the week, making HUI/Gold ease to 0.1576. You find more on the gold miner pulse page.
As we end the first quarter, a fresh update of the miner performance page also has been added. The number of advances balance that of losses.

Minor retreats for GDX and GDXJ among the mining ETF's. SIL even manages a small advance, yet still lags the decent silver gain. With a 0.4% decline, our contributor driven explorer and junior miner spreadsheet is amidst the squad. There are 7 advances over the week, unable to balance the decline of the 12 others.