Premeditated collapse
Posted: 14 Nov 2016, 01:48
Opinion polls on the US presidential election were equally wrong as the UK polls on the Brexit. The people equally voted against the establishment, favoring the populist Trump, a loudmouth play ground bully since his early years, the like of Nigel Farage. Yet probably all resemblance stops there.
The impact of president elect Trump on American society may be just as pronounced as the Brexit in the UK, the response of financial markets turned out quite different and again went against the mainstream forecasts. Fear and uncertainty made Asian markets slide, whereas the loss in Europe stayed contained and US markets eventually ended higher upon the election result. US stock markets continued rallying ending the election week up about 3.8% (S&P and Nasdaq); the DJI even surged 5.36% over the week.
A mirror like image for precious metals, with gold making an intra-day high above $1300 upon initial indications favoring a Trump election victory, with enthusiasm waning over the day and gold ending virtually flat on Wednesday: the start of an exasperating plunge. The yellow metal ends the week at $1227.6/Oz, down 5.86% over the week. The white precious metals initially resisted better. Yet the silver plunge on Friday was even more breathtaking. Silver ends the week down 5.65% at $17.37/Oz. Platinum slid 5.42% to $942, while Palladium went against the grid as usual, firming 7.36% over the week to $671, despite its Friday retreat.
It is obvious that speculators made a U turn from 'risk-off' being long gold to 'risk-on' being long the stock market and 'short gold'. The long to short speculative position swing on Comex gold futures exceeds the annual global mine production.
The carnage among miners is predictable: the HUI plunged 17.11% over the week, tumbling to 180.2. The HUI/Gold ratio thereby slid to 0.147, the lowest level in over 6 months, as you notice in the first graph on the gold miner pulse blog page. Nevertheless the HUI almost perfectly followed its regression line: residuals remain mildly negative. There is no indication of 'capitulation'.
Among our benchmark ETF's, losses are comparable to that of the HUI: ranging 16.2%-17.7%. Only SIL was off a little less (-14.9%). Poor comfort that with a 14.55% decline, our Contributor driven Explorer and Junior Miner spreadsheet is the best in class. Two miners advance against the trend, yet among declines we face quite a few double digit slides, as could be anticipated. Sandstorm Gold, Osisko Royalties, Osisko Gold and B2Gold gave up their long term advance, which brings us to an unfavorable 6 advances against 13 declines since list inclusion. The long term decline now posts 15.06%.
... en er nog bijvertellen dat ook de Miners' Performance pagina een update heeft gekregen. Sedert 28 okt hebben 78 mijnbedrijven op 94 terrein verloren. Slechts 10 gingen vooruit terwijl er 6 ongeveer ter plaatse bleven trappelen.
The impact of president elect Trump on American society may be just as pronounced as the Brexit in the UK, the response of financial markets turned out quite different and again went against the mainstream forecasts. Fear and uncertainty made Asian markets slide, whereas the loss in Europe stayed contained and US markets eventually ended higher upon the election result. US stock markets continued rallying ending the election week up about 3.8% (S&P and Nasdaq); the DJI even surged 5.36% over the week.
A mirror like image for precious metals, with gold making an intra-day high above $1300 upon initial indications favoring a Trump election victory, with enthusiasm waning over the day and gold ending virtually flat on Wednesday: the start of an exasperating plunge. The yellow metal ends the week at $1227.6/Oz, down 5.86% over the week. The white precious metals initially resisted better. Yet the silver plunge on Friday was even more breathtaking. Silver ends the week down 5.65% at $17.37/Oz. Platinum slid 5.42% to $942, while Palladium went against the grid as usual, firming 7.36% over the week to $671, despite its Friday retreat.
It is obvious that speculators made a U turn from 'risk-off' being long gold to 'risk-on' being long the stock market and 'short gold'. The long to short speculative position swing on Comex gold futures exceeds the annual global mine production.
The carnage among miners is predictable: the HUI plunged 17.11% over the week, tumbling to 180.2. The HUI/Gold ratio thereby slid to 0.147, the lowest level in over 6 months, as you notice in the first graph on the gold miner pulse blog page. Nevertheless the HUI almost perfectly followed its regression line: residuals remain mildly negative. There is no indication of 'capitulation'.
Among our benchmark ETF's, losses are comparable to that of the HUI: ranging 16.2%-17.7%. Only SIL was off a little less (-14.9%). Poor comfort that with a 14.55% decline, our Contributor driven Explorer and Junior Miner spreadsheet is the best in class. Two miners advance against the trend, yet among declines we face quite a few double digit slides, as could be anticipated. Sandstorm Gold, Osisko Royalties, Osisko Gold and B2Gold gave up their long term advance, which brings us to an unfavorable 6 advances against 13 declines since list inclusion. The long term decline now posts 15.06%.
... en er nog bijvertellen dat ook de Miners' Performance pagina een update heeft gekregen. Sedert 28 okt hebben 78 mijnbedrijven op 94 terrein verloren. Slechts 10 gingen vooruit terwijl er 6 ongeveer ter plaatse bleven trappelen.
