Hooimijt Mei 2012

[kobajashi]

Verder heb ik tussen de lijnen door ook gelezen dat LEAP denkt dat er toch een nieuwe wereldreservemunt zou komen op basis van de al bestaande SDR en deels gedekt door goud???

Maar is dit dan niet meer van hetzelfde van vroeger (voor 1971)? En we hebben gezien hoe dit is afgelopen.

Zelf denk ik niet dat dit een goede oplossing zou zijn al weet je nooit dat ze het niet "proberen" om dan een jaartje later toch naar een RPG of freegold te gaan...

http://www.leap2020.eu/When-China-prepa ... a3582.html

LEAP/E2020 believes that the next stage of the crisis will result from a Chinese dream. Indeed, what on earth can China be dreaming of, caught – if we listen to Washington – in the “dollar trap” of its USD 1,400-billion worth of USD-denominated assets? If we believe US leaders and their scores of media experts, China is only dreaming of remaining a prisoner, and even intensifying the severity of its prison conditions by always buying more US Treasuries and Dollars.

In fact, everyone knows what prisoners dream of. They dream of escaping of course, of getting away from prison. Therefore, LEAP/E2020 has no doubt that Beijing is constantly striving to find the means of disposing, as quickly as possible, of the mountain of « toxic » assets which US T-Bonds and Dollars have become, keeping the wealth of 1,300 billion Chinese citizens prisoner.

In any good escape story, the prisoners do not spend their time making announcements that they are preparing to get away. In fact, on the contrary, they tend to avoid arousing their guards’ vigilance. According to our team, the Chinese declaration of March 24th asking for the replacement of the US dollar by an international reserve currency was both a “testing of the waters” and a warning: a direct poll to make an assessment of the forces at work (within the G20 in particular) when it comes to moving to a post-Dollar era (1), and a constructive and destructive (depending of the reaction to the previous idea) warning sent to the various global players. A responsible player (and Beijing is one) must send discreet signals to the other players likely to follow or help “planning the job”. The preparation (2) and implementation of a « Great Escape » (3) requires the collaboration of several partners and no one who would have been willing to co-operate must end up in trouble because he was not informed (4).
In any event, thanks to the Central Bank of China’s “testing of the waters”, Chinese authorities have the following four beliefs confirmed:

1. A large part of the other members of the G20 are clearly in favour of a quick shift (5) to a post-Dollar era, in particular Russia, India, South Africa, Argentina, Brazil… therefore Beijing will not be alone when the time for a “Great leap forward ” (6) comes. On the contrary, China will be accompanied by a significant part of Latin America, Africa and Asia. The recent Yuan swap deals agreed with some of these countries is already paving the way in this direction (7).
2. The United States and the United Kingdom are refusing to consider any move in the direction of a post-Dollar era. Timothy Geithner’s blunder, when he considered discussing the Chinese proposal, was quickly corrected by US political leaders, but it revealed an interesting situation for Beijing. Geithner is Wall Street’s man in Obama’s team, and his blunder suggests that the financial Anglo-Saxon community would in fact be quite open to discussing any move likely to maintain their financial privileges, even if it means the end of the “Dollar era”. The « Dollar wall » is not so solid when it leans on « Wall Street ». Financial players have little attachment to a particular territory (this characteristic dates back to long before our current globalised system). In contrast, Washington still does not want to hear anything about the replacement of the US Dollar as global reserve currency, preferring to listen to and believe in soothing experts’ talk instead (8). We know what the result was in the case of subprime loans, the financial bubble, Wall Street’s banks, AIG, TARP, the recession, and so on.

3. The Europeans (except UK) are their usual selves, unable to make any really firm decision with regard to their former US protector (9). They are successful in resisting Washington’s orders, but they are not able to impose an agenda that would displease the United States. Nevertheless, thanks to their multilateral nature and numerous relays, it is obvious that, once the end of the « Dollar-era » has become irreversible, they would bring all their know-how and lobbying capacity to bear the creation of a new international currency, independent of any particular country. That is the reason why China launched the idea that the SDR (10) could be an alternative to the Dollar, proving that it was open to other suggestions than the Yuan (key condition for European support in the future).
4. Beijing is resorting to increasingly clear and bold announcements, always gradual, sometimes even followed by vague denials, coming from less important sources but soon widely circulated by the international financial media. It is thus increasing its freedom of speech (and of action, as, when it comes to monetary issues, what is said can be a lethal weapon or a soothing remedy) without significantly affecting the value of US Treasuries or the Dollar.

This last aspect is indeed the ultimate requirement of the Chinese government: to avoid by any means a collapse in the value of US Treasuries and the Dollar before it has escaped the « Dollar trap ». LEAP/E2020 believes that, in the coming months, China will reveal the exact meaning of this requirement. Is it a goal or a necessity? If it is a goal, then Washington, London and the international financial media are right: Beijing will follow in Washington’s footsteps, merely trying to enhance its influence on US decisions. On the contrary, if it is a necessity, then our team is right and Chinese leaders will strive to sell off their US-Treasuries and Dollars at the best « possible » price, choosing the best « possible » moment, avoiding creating turmoil likely to lower the value of these assets for as long as « possible » (of course, China has been thinking about all the « possibilities » before launching its « escape » plan). But, in contrast to the first option, once all “possibilities” have expired, Chinese leaders will all of a sudden contribute to accelerate the end of the Dollar-era; or, more likely, they will calmly announce that for a number of reasons beyond their control (11), they can no longer continue to play the role of US imbalances’ stabilizers.


...


In the knowledge that each time Bernanke declares that the Fed will purchase its own US Treasuries, they lose 10 percent in one day, i.e. USD 140 billion compared to other international currencies, Chinese leaders will certainly find it acceptable to sacrifice USD 400 or 500 billion.

LEAP/E2020 believes that, at this stage, they will consider that they made the best « possible » use of their USD-denominated assets. Then, they would better be among those who push the « button » - or who do not try to prevent it. The second phase of China’s “Great Escape” out of the Dollar will then begin, depending on the behavior of the other key players. Either the Yuan takes its place as international reserve currency along with the Euro, Yen, Ruble, Real, or a process creating a new international reserve currency based on a basket of these currencies will begin. The Dollar will then be out of the race and the G20 reduced to a G18 (without the United States and the United Kingdom, but with Japan no longer able to escape the Chinese sphere of influence). Otherwise, the process of global geopolitical dislocation, described in GEAB N°32, will be underway, based on economic blocks, each of them trading in their own specific reserve currency.


...

[kobajashi]

meer LEAP:


http://www.leap2020.eu/Advice-to-the-G2 ... a7862.html


On March 29, 2009, Franck Biancheri signed an open letter in the Financial Times international edition from LEAP/E2020 to the G20 leaders who were going to meet in London the next week. In its introduction, this text predicted that if the three recommendations it contained were not implemented as soon as possible, rather than a crisis of three to five years, the world would sink into a crisis for more than a decade.

Here we are two and a half years later and, alas, it is now clear that not only has the crisis revealed in 2008 not been resolved (1), but is getting worse instead now combining loss of confidence in paper currencies and the Western banking system (2), relapse of the world economy into recession, permanent rise in Western unemployment, explosive public debt in Western countries and growing unease of the emerging powers in front of an old order that refuses to think of its’ succession.

In 2009, LEAP/E2020 gave three pieces of strategic advice to the G20 leaders:

. in priority, create a new international reference currency to replace the US Dollar, which is now unable to hold the role of the pillar of the global monetary system

. at the same time ensure that the public authorities take control of the major banks which have become real "black holes" of liquidity, either by nationalization or other methods

. finally, carry out via the IMF, a thorough audit of the American, British and Swiss financial systems at the heart of the financial world.

Without these essential reforms and their rapid implementation in the six months following the G20 summit in London, we indicated that the "window of opportunity" would close for several years.
To complete these recommendations, the open letter stressed the importance of publishing a statement from the G20 which should be brief and easily understood by world public opinion in the absence of the power to curb people’s fears.

Today everybody realizes that almost three years have been lost since the same problems remain a burning issue (3).

But political anticipation is not a school of regret, but an instrument to help decision-making.

For LEAP/E2020 it is time, therefore, on the eve of the new G20 summit to be held in Cannes on 3-4 November 2011, to continue the effort begun in 2009. This effort is intended to prevent the world plunging into what Franck Biancheri calls "the tragic scenario for the 2010-2020 decade " (4). And the time seems particularly favourable since, according to our team, a new "window of opportunity" will open in 2012, for a maximum period of two years.

A new window of opportunity for action by the G20 opens in 2012

In effect, during 2012, the leaders of almost half the G20 countries will be replaced. This will be the case for Mexico, South Korea, the United States, China, Russia, India, France, Italy and probably Germany (4). From the end of 2012, the G20 Summit will, therefore, bring together political leaders mainly elected "in the crisis", and not before the crisis as is now the case. On this basis, the preparation of summits for 2012, 2013 and 2014 will no longer be paralyzed and / or interfered with by the many "taboos", "impossibilities" or, on the contrary, "now obsolete certainties" or "the obvious which is no more" belonging to the world before the crisis. In any case, this new generation of leaders will not be able to pretend they have discovered a situation for which it has not been prepared; and to paraphrase the conclusion of our 2009 open letter, it won’t be able to pretend either not to have been advised of the available opportunities to take the planet on a path of peaceful transition to the world after the crisis.

At the same time, the recent widespread awareness (since the beginning of the second half of 2011) of the fact that that everything remains to be done to try to overcome the global systemic crisis created, for a year or two at most, a situation conducive to political audacity. Exhausted by the consequences of the crisis and alarmed by the inefficiency of the steps taken to resolve it, public opinion everywhere is now ready to support or go along with major upheavals in the order that has prevailed in recent decades, both in socio-economic and geopolitical terms. But here also, keep in mind that this state of mind will only be positive if it is exposed to proposed ambitious solutions reflecting the interests of the vast majority and that otherwise, from 2013, it will metamorphose into destructive anger everywhere, targeting existing systems and leaders.

Having defined the conditions for the exercise of a first effective power by the G20, LEAP/E2020 advises the G20 leaders to focus on three strategic priorities in 2012/2013. We emphasize the importance of a tight agenda, refusing dissemination over a wide variety of subjects. In fact, the complexity of the problem, namely the emergence of a new global governance, like the need to communicate to convince public opinion consisting of several billions of citizens in very diverse political, social, cultural, economic contexts, requires focus on the essentials.

The G20’s three strategic priorities for constructing the future from 2012/2013

And for LEAP/E2020, the essentials are contained in these three strategic priorities that fundamentally determine all the future architecture of global governance and, at the same time, purify the dangerous areas of the current system. Simply put, it’s a case of building the future whilst defusing the present from the bombs of the past.

First priority: From 2012 (at the latest) launch the process for creating a new global reserve currency. At this stage the simplest method would be to turn SDRs into this new global monetary instrument giving it a more "sexy" name of course, and retaining the currencies of the major economies in the basket defining its value: US Dollar, Euro, Yen, Yuan, Real, Ruble, the Gulf currency (if it emerges by then), South African Rand, and possibly gold, which de facto has once again become a safe haven currency. It’s a case of restructuring the world monetary system on the real economy, then exiting the "financial" currencies such as the Pound sterling or the Swiss Franc.

Technical problems do not exist. The expertise exists within the international institutions to carry out all the work required to create such a currency within a year. The difficulty exclusively arises, therefore, from the emergence of a determined political will from the G20 to keep to a schedule of two years to create and launch this new currency.
This willingness, and the decisional weight necessary and sufficient to bring it to fruition, will potentially exist in a subgroup of the G20 consisting of Euroland, the BRICs, and several other emerging countries. The political changes at the head of the main Euroland countries like the current growing confrontation between Euroland on the one hand and Wall Street and the City on the other will create, in the next 12 months at most, the perfect conditions for a Euroland-BRICS convergence on such an agenda.

It’s starting with this "creative" core that the G20 summit’s agenda in late 2012 must be prepared which will include of course, otherwise nothing will happen, a radical reform and with immediate effect of the composition of the capital and caucus of the major global organizations (IMF, World Bank, WTO, UN Security Council) (6). At the rate of evolution of the crisis, in 2012, neither Washington nor London will no longer be able (even if they still wanted to (7)) to oppose the creation of this new global reference currency.

The vision and determination of Euroland leaders (8), the BRICs and other emerging countries in the G20 will be the only factors of the success or failure of this fundamental reform without which the current international monetary system will continue to sink into increasing chaos year after year, producing terrible setbacks for world trade, the global economy and international cooperation, all whilst fueling the rise in unemployment and the impoverishment of Western middle classes, and considerably slowing down the development of emerging economies.

Without a "reliable standard" there is no stable economic and financial system. It’s here that this priority is strategic: without it, nothing significant or lasting can be done since any measure is corrupted by a standard (the US Dollar) which has become weak, elastic and unpredictable.

Second priority: Put all the world’s major financial institutions under public tutelage, wholly or partly, from the beginning of 2013 at the latest. The list is known already since it’s those that, at the request of the G20, the Financial Stability Board qualify as carrying systemic risk. To which should be added the BRICs and emerging countries’ major institutions because it is obvious that many of them will become "systemic" in the next five years. The objective in this area is twofold: first to ensure that these institutions resist speculative temptations - although we already know that it isn’t possible to trust their leadership and / or private shareholders in this area; second, to organize a "gentle deflation", which doesn’t break the real economy, of the virtual economy. Any country refusing such a policy will have their establishments concerned blacklisted, just like what has been tried unsuccessfully for tax havens. Without success, because there was no determined political will on the subject, and especially because it’s not the tax haven that speculates ... it is the major bank that uses it. This time, the G20 has no room for error: neither mistaking the target, nor the method.

Third priority: At the end of 2012 launch a huge ten-year public infrastructure programme on a world scale. In the term "infrastructure", LEAP/E2020 particularly includes all essential public services such as education, access to medical care and basic services (water, electricity, telecommunications) and some symbolic science programs (medicine, space and energy). Through this bias of supporting effective and sustainable (9) global growth by the best and safest (10) use of the current imbalances in financial resources: the countries benefiting from substantial surpluses finding a useful and safe means of recycling them. It’s also, in our opinion, the only way to put a stop to the accelerated evaporation of trillions of US dollar assets generated by the current financial crisis and economic recession. Imagine a budget of one trillion Euros (a symbolic figure in communication terms) split into two geopolitical envelopes: one for infrastructure or projects involving many regions of the world; the other focused on a single region or one country. Western countries should also benefit because otherwise we remain in the logic of the world before the crisis and their economies and because their economies also need a big hand (especially the United States as regards infrastructure).

To conclude this second piece of advice to the G20 leaders in less than three years, LEAP/E2020 wishes to draw their attention to a fundamental methodological point. The content and form are closely related, it is essential that from the end of 2012 the world should be able to see a radical change in the process of the geographic location of the G20’s work, and beyond, from 2013, global governance. The urgency and complexity of the G20’s work in this period justifies the holding of two G20 summits per year. After that planned in Mexico mid-2012, it is necessary to make provision for one in the last quarter of 2012 so that all the new leaders elected during the year can begin to bring their weight to bear on the institution’s work and agenda.

In addition, from this date, it would be desirable, for obvious reasons of global credibility, that the summits leave the Atlanticist fold (11) to be held with the emerging powers: China, Brazil, India and Russia seem obvious choices, to show that the G20 is not a G7 decorated with invited countries. No doubt this will help to radically progress the agendas, an indispensable condition for overcoming the crisis.

Finally, in this sense, it is inevitable that from 2013/2014 the discussion will start on the relocation of major international institutions to ensure that the geography of global governance after the crisis reflects the real world and not that of 1945. Far from being details, these changes go to the heart of the decision making process and will be tremendous assets in convincing public opinion so it really feels that there is indeed an historic change taking place in the minds of those who lead them and not just in their meetings’ press releases.

Speaking of method, we have to explain to our subscribers what we have chosen for this "G-20 2011Action" (12). This year LEAP/E2020 has chosen a very different approach from that adopted in 2009. There will be no open letter published in the Financial Times or any other international newspaper: first, because LEAP/E2020’ audience today is wide enough to no longer need an intermediary (13). Secondly, because it’s time to no longer depend on the Anglo-Saxon media, whose international coverage reflects "the world before the crisis", to communicate such messages aimed at preparing "the world after the crisis". Thus we reaffirm by example that the content and form are closely linked to ensure coherent action and discussion, thus ensuring maximum effectiveness for the effort undertaken.

This advice will, therefore, be distributed to GEAB subscribers initially then exceptionally (14) posted publicly on the website in mid-October, two weeks before the Summit in Cannes. Meanwhile, for the last six months, in partnership with LEAP and Anticipolis editions, Franck Biancheri, LEAP/E2020 Director, has begun an operation to distribute the international edition (15) of his book "The World Crisis: The Path to the World Afterwards" and LEAP/E2020’s work with diplomats and special advisers from all countries participating in the G20 summit in Cannes (16). Moreover, we can only praise the very positive welcome received to date by almost all the countries concerned. This awareness work will continue right up to the summit itself in early November.

Read PDF
2-Gefira G20 tekst-EN.pdf (256.79 Ko)

[kobajashi]

Zijn er hier die meer weten over de SDR richting die LEAP aanhaald?
Dan vooral vanuit het standpunt van LEAP zelf gezien....


Mvg


Koba

[pascaline]

Goeiendag... je krijgt er een zwaargewicht bij als er vragen zijn ... hit me ... Je herkent me wel aan mijn schrijfstijl
AlineV . Alainvandam . allez aan U de keuze een ban of WELKOM
I like the word FREE / Sold some of my stack 5% below spotprices so ... I'm not in the game for 5% more or less.
Anyway SUCCES MET DE NIEUWE DRAAD ... Normaliter gaan we naar 60K de kilo ergens in 2013 that is.
IF not we go back to 25K de kilo maarja dan kopen we wel terug bij n'est pas.

Finja das het Europees scenario, heb even de POG bekeken in Indian Roepies en volgens mij gaan we gewoon "hoger". zoals het daar al 40 jaar lang doet.

Versta me niet verkeerd zit nog altijd met 85% goud 5% zilver en nu na 7 jaar 10% cash (daar ik wat meer wil reizen en gek werd met 99% metaal en 1% cash)
Meer moet je er "niet" achter zoeken.

Heb wel zin om een 50% goud 50% cash aan te houden gezien de bedragen, maar das mja, straks eindigen we nog met een PP en dat willen we niet.

[skyscraper]

massale vraag in Zwitserland

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/ ... ssive.html

en die zijn al wereldrecordhouder ...

[Indiana Jones]

Zijn er hier die meer weten over de SDR richting die LEAP aanhaald?Dan vooral vanuit het standpunt van LEAP zelf gezien....


Mvg
Koba

Jim Sinclair !

++++++

p.s. pascaline, welkom hier ..... geen idee wie je bent. Hopenlijk geen obesitas, wanwege je 'zwaargewichtigheid' ? ..

[skyscraper]

p.s. pascaline, welkom hier ..... geen idee wie je bent. Hopenlijk geen obesitas, wanwege je 'zwaargewichtigheid' ? ..

Indy, zo'n schoon vrouw hebt ge nog nooit gezien!
't is er alleen geen voor Gert Verhulst

[Indiana Jones]

p.s. pascaline, welkom hier ..... geen idee wie je bent. Hopenlijk geen obesitas, wanwege je 'zwaargewichtigheid' ? ..

Indy, zo'n schoon vrouw hebt ge nog nooit gezien!
't is er alleen geen voor Gert Verhulst

Laat haar dan eens een plaatje sturen ... als ze weet wie ik ben, herkent ze me wel ....

[Indiana Jones]

Zelf ben ik een grote "believer" van de theorie van Another/FOA en nu FOFOA en denk dat het niet anders zal kunnen dan ontkoppelen tussen fysiek en papier...
Als je al de artikels van FOFOA EN DE DAAROPVOLGENDE DISCUSSIES begrijpend doorneemt dan denk ik dat menig persoon de overtuiging zal vinden die ik (en ook bv Boefke denk ik) ook heb gekregen. Voorel JR weet ongeloofelijk veel voorbeelden aan te halen om bepaalde zaken beter uit te kunnen leggen

p.s. HELE GOEDE POSTS

stemmen tot nadenken. Ik hoop meer posts van je te lezen ´ook al zijn het quotes', want ze staan vol stof tot heroverweging en aangezien niets zeker is, is heroverweging altijd goed .....

[Indiana Jones]

Dear Friends,

The European Stabilization Mechanism Treaty due to pass in July this year will take care of whatever money is required by Spain or any other Euroland nations for effective bailout. It starts with $700 billion in capitalization and has an open call for additional capital infusion with no limit placed on these calls and no further agreements required.

New additional capitalization called on by this treaty is mandatory, not elective and therefore will go to infinity.

The member nations have 7 days to pay up when ordered to by the management of the EMS who are protected against any form of attack or litigation to legislation. It will be backed by the US Fed via swaps while the US publicly denies it is adding any capital to the IMF or this new entity, ESM.

It is the mechanism for QE to infinity in Europe.

QE to infinity, properly understood, is debt monetization on steroids. Denials will be legion, but this debt monetization on steroids will not and cannot be avoided.

The advent of the ESM Treaty establishing the European Stabilization Mechanism is economically Earth shaking and recognized by almost no one out there. It cannot be otherwise, it cannot be avoided. It can de denied but it will occur.

Respectfully,
Jim