Hooimijt februari 2013

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PieterP
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Re: Hooimijt februari 2013

Post by PieterP »

Rasta wrote:
PieterP wrote:Eh nee, je uitleg over invers aan synchroon met de euro kan ik niet volgen.
De laatste regel wel, die snap ik.

Als ik nu zo naar die bewegingen kijk begint mij een akelig gevoel te bekruipen eigenlijk.
Ik pik veel onrust op en begin het idee te krijgen dat we naar een fluitende kanarie kijken.
Die kanarie fluit vals en naar mijn idee (gevoel, nergens op gebaseerd) betekend dit niet veel goeds.
Even een reality check. Is er iets fundamenteels verbeterd in de economie of beleid, dat we werkelijk groei krijgen, en zo de problemen achter ons laten? Indien het antwoord ontkennend is, dan moet je de ruis negeren, en de lange termijn visie blijven volgen: goud en gerelateerde producten zullen over langere termijn omhoog gaan.

Papier zegt niets in deze. Natuurlijk kan die omlaag, maar ooit komt er een moment dat de premies gaan stijgen omdat de papierprijs niet meer is wat de markt (de "over the counter" cash-market) er voor wil hebben. Wil jij met je papiertjes aan de verkeerde kant staan op dat moment?

Waarom zijn die centrale banken in het oosten aan het opkopen als gekken?
Ik krijg een beetje het gevoel dat mijn stukske verkeerd overkomt, ongetwijfeld omdat ik ietwat ongelukkig communiceer.
Waarvoor mijn verontschuldiging, ik ben niet zo een specialist, dus misschien kan men mij vergeven?

De onrust die ik beschrijf komt vooral voort uit de bewegingen die de kanariepiet maakt.
Ik weet inderdaad niet zo precies als jullie wie of wat daar achter steekt, ik beschrijf gewoon even een symptoom.
Voor mij is de enige consequentie dat ik mogelijk vaker en sneller kan omwisselen.
Verder boeit die prijs mij niet, zoals ik al eerder schreef.

Maar die plotselinge bewegingen maken dus dat er bij mij een gevoel opkomt van onrust.
Is het moment dat we een ineenstorting gaan zien nu sneller dichterbij aan het komen?
Vooral als dat zou betekenen dat de controle weg valt en armageddon zich aandient?
Brr, ik moet er niet aan denken.
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Sanem
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Re: Hooimijt februari 2013

Post by Sanem »

Indiana Jones wrote: 2) Ik weet het dan nog wel ..... ;)
zie postje (en de posts erboven):
http://www.freegoldforum.com/viewtopic.php?p=8400#p8400

en 3) .... neen, ik heb de wijsheid niet in pacht .... heb géén glazen bol ..... maar speculeer al wel vanaf begin 2005 met mooi positief rendement (voortschijdend gemiddelde) 'ondermeer' in de goudmarkt.
interessant spul Indy
ik heb zeker ook geen glazen bol, alleen een theorie zoals er vissen zijn in de zee (dat is te zeggen momenteel op weg naar de bodem van de oceaan)
mijn verwachting is dat de 1600 lijn niet (lang) zal worden gebroken, en dat we volgende week weer aan 1650 zitten. ik zie dit als een laatste adempauze voor het zware werk begint, een laatste schijnbeweging voor je op doel schiet
we zullen het snel weten! ;)
Adamus
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Re: Hooimijt februari 2013

Post by Adamus »

http://www.rtl.nl/components/financien/ ... ard-op.xml

Zo verdienen we geld. De Griek had dat niet door :lol:
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Indiana Jones
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Re: Hooimijt februari 2013

Post by Indiana Jones »

PieterP wrote:
1) Ik krijg een beetje het gevoel dat mijn stukske verkeerd overkomt, ongetwijfeld omdat ik ietwat ongelukkig communiceer.
Waarvoor mijn verontschuldiging, ik ben niet zo een specialist, dus misschien kan men mij vergeven?

De onrust die ik beschrijf komt vooral voort uit de bewegingen die de kanariepiet maakt.
Ik weet inderdaad niet zo precies als jullie wie of wat daar achter steekt, ik beschrijf gewoon even een symptoom.
Voor mij is de enige consequentie dat ik mogelijk vaker en sneller kan omwisselen.
Verder boeit die prijs mij niet, zoals ik al eerder schreef.

2) Maar die plotselinge bewegingen maken dus dat er bij mij een gevoel opkomt van onrust.
Is het moment dat we een ineenstorting gaan zien nu sneller dichterbij aan het komen?
Vooral als dat zou betekenen dat de controle weg valt en armageddon zich aandient?
Brr, ik moet er niet aan denken.
1) Alsof ik precies weet wat er allemaal aan de hand is ....... mooi niet, dus :!:
Geneer je niet, want de stukjes die ik de afgelopen jaren schreef zijn ook stukjes vanuit een 'vallen en weer opstaan' principe.
Soms moet ik mijn visie aanpassen doordat de omstandigheden om ons heen veranderen en soms kom ik er achteraf achter dat ik ergens de plank heb misgeslagen. Ben overigens nooit te beroerd om dat toe te geven (ben ook maar een mens. :) )
Het is juist de kunst om elkaar scherp te houden, dus blijf alsjeblieft posten .....
De één is wat bescheidener in posten dan de ander. Ik weet van mezelf dat ik soms redelijk staccato kan posten waardoor het lijkt alsof ik redelijk overtuigd ben van mezelf, echter niets is minder waar !
Sterker nog, ik denk dat overheden en CB's (en ook hedgefunds) het soms zelf niet eens precies weten en soms ook (door persoonlijke ego's dwarsgezeten) flink over hun eigen kunnen heen gaan.

2) Ik herken dit wel, want heb me bij tijd en wijle ook wel eens zorgen gemaakt ..... zeker direct na de val van Lehman en daarna toen Griekenland kopje onder dreigde te gaan. Ben er zo langzamerhand wel achter dat ik er toch niets aan kan veranderen. Zorgen maken over zorgen schiet niets op en angst is een bijzonder slechte leermeester! (overigens wel iets waarmee we van bovenaf ongelooflijk gemanipuleerd worden)
Ik zie westerse overheden en centrale banken worstelen, ik zie hedgefunds (ook de Goldman Sachs cs. hedgefunds) ongelooflijk van de onrust profiteren, soms ook een forse tegenvaller incasseren en kan daar niets aan veranderen. Mag alleen hopen dat ik er een beetje op kan meevaren zodat ik mijn koopkracht enigszins kan behouden (wat fysiek sparen) en d.m.v. speculatie in de commodity markten wat bijverdienen. Voor wat dat laatste betreft, ben ik daar heel voorzichtig mee. De meeste goldbugs/financieel analisten beweren in hoogmoed dat ze weten wat er gaat gebeuren, ze pennen er het hele world-wide-web mee vol en praten zichzelf daarna altijd weer goed (of zwijgen) als ze het qua timing- of marktrichting mis hebben. Ze slaan zichzelf op de borst als ze het bij toeval een keer goed hebben gezien .... lekker makkelijk, toch.
Zeker is dat we het qua speculatie toch nooit van de grote jongens/meisjes kunnen winnen, eerder dat we het risico lopen om aan het eind van de rit met lege zakken komen te staan.

Het fysiek (wat ik in bescheiden mate heb) kijk ik verder niet naar om. Het zijn mijn lange termijn spaarcenten waarop ik geen winst hoef te maken, juist eerder koopkracht wil zien te behouden. Meer dan dat kan ik financieel gezien niet doen.
We moeten niet vergeten wie/wat we eigenlijk zijn en waar we in de evolutie vandaan komen, waar we afhankelijk van zijn en waar we diep in onze ziel van kunnen genieten.. ;) ...zie het filmpje vanaf 3:15 ...

Verder vanmorgen heerlijk een paar uur met de honden (zwitserse herders) in het bos gewandeld/gehold en daarvan genoten ... want dát is het echte leven!

Be well,
Indy

Everything that needs to be said has already been said.
But since no one was listening, everything must be said again.
cavajo
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Re: Hooimijt februari 2013

Post by cavajo »

Kan me perfect aansluiten bij de post van Indy.

Deze namiddag gaan wandelen met de Mechelse herder,....de hond geniet nog na, en wij
genieten nog na !
Dat is belangrijk : leven, en vooral proberen te genieten van de kleine dinges des leven.
Als je van de kleine dingen niet geniet, wat zouden de grote geneugtes je dan wel moeten
brengen... ?

Wat goudkoers betreft :
Mijn eerlijke opinie...
Deze koers had ik vandaag toch niet ingeschat. Daar ben ik doodeerlijk in.
Een merkelijk hogere POG, op dit moment in ons economisch bestel, was mijn inschatting.
Het is wat het is.
Doet dit mij twijfelen tot verkoop : NEEN.
( maar anders was uiteraard leuker ! ).
Het blijft hem gaan om koopkrachtbehoud in " eigen horizon ".
De kortegolffluctuaties dienen we maar te slikken zeker.

Elkeen kocht fysiek ( ik hoop toch fysiek ! ) op eigen beslissing. En elkeen had of heeft een
motivering voor deze beslissing. En elkeen heeft opnieuw de vrijheid om over te gaan op
verkoop.
Zoals Rasta ( volgens mij geheel terecht ) opmerkte, er is in wezen nog niks verandert in
onze financiele wereld.......continue oplopende begrotingstekorten, of dramatische economische krimp,
geen aanzwengeling van groei te sporen....en een langzame verarming van de middenklasse.
Toch voor wat het Westen betreft.
En de opkomende Chinees hamstert goud.
En Rusland hamstert goud.
En, deze 2 blokken zeggen MIJ meer dan wat de ' merkelijk meer aandacht krijgende ' beslissing is
van één of ander hedgefund. Soros, of niet.....

Mijn fysiekaankopen zijn gericht op wat ik aanvoel.
Uiteraard lees je graag bij,....ter bevestiging....ter verduidelijking....etc...
Maar mijn opinie vorm ik vooral zelf.
NIET op Armstrong heeft gezegd....
NIET op de TA-lijn geeft weer dat.....
NIET op Faber vindt dat....
Laat staan op Warren Buffet...
Mijn respect hoor, voor deze mensen,....maar dat respect heb ik evenzeer voor één van mijn
vrienden die als dakwerker met verkleumde handen in de winter een pannelat nagelt op een af
te werken dak..... of voor mijnen gebuur die met een klein pensioen al overgelukkig is als hij
een kleinigheid kan gaan eten met wat vrienden in één of ander plaatselijk restaurant.

Mijn opinie vorm ik gewoon zelf : ik blijf in fysiek.
Maar ik heb er geen probleem mee als iemand anders beslist zijn eigen gevoel te vormen,
haaks op het mijne.

Voor de rest probeer ik momenteel zo veel mogelijk te lezen over de ACW studiedienst.....
Die mensen moeten straks voorop lopen in een Nationale Betoging, en weten nog niet direct of ze
in carnavalpak of gewoon als zichzelf verkleed gaan optreden.
Ook deze " grappen " doen me naar blijvend " fysiek " overhellen.

Het valt me wel op dat in minder leuke tijden er steeds snel onzekerheid optreedt bij sommigen.
Nogmaals, elkeen zijn beslissing.
Men is boven ons, ons langzaam aan het stropen....
Bekaaid gaan we er sowieso uitkomen, schade gaan we oplopen......
Maar ik geloof rotsvast dat met fysiek de schade beter zal meevallen dan zonder.

mvg,
Cavajo
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Spruitje
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Re: Hooimijt februari 2013

Post by Spruitje »

Her en der kan je nu lezen dat grote kapitalen zich terugtrekken uit Amerikaanse beurzen, Sorros zou 1/3de van z'n goud ETF's van de hand gedaan hebben.
Zou het -samen met de correctie op de Comex- te maken kunnen hebben met de nakende sequester op 1 maart in de States?

- - -

Even nog een interview posten van James Turk die aangeeft dat we gaan beginnen aan de derde en laatste wave.
Hij ziet prijzen van $8.000-$10.000, mogelijk zelfs $11.000.

James Turk: Central banks are losing the war to suppress Gold & Silver (34'47")
Study while others are sleeping; work while others are loafing; prepare while others are playing; and dream while others are wishing.
- William Arthur Ward -
Stepup
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Joined: 04 Jan 2013, 09:20

Re: Hooimijt februari 2013

Post by Stepup »

INTRO
Why do we swap fiatmoney, alike dollars and euro's, to silver?
As a hedge against inflation of the fiatmoney.
We expect silver to preserve our purchasing power better than dollars and euro's.
That's plain wrong.
Dollars and euro's and also silver do nothing to protect our purchasing power.
They are dead cotton+ink and metal.
This is something important you should realize.
Nothing makes you lose or gain or breakeven.
It's what some other people DO to dollars, euro's and silver, that makes you lose or gain or breakeven.
Inflation literally means 'blowing up'.
In the case fiatmoney, it means increasing the amount money circulating in the economy.
The same amount products, and an increased amount dollars or euro's, together mean more dollars or euro's per product.
UNLESS the producing part of the population is able to increase the amount products.
Since most of the new dollars and euro's are spent by the parasiting part of the population (as debt), it means that the producing part has to increase its production WITHOUT being rewarded for it, in other words: at the same cost.
That's do-able. It's what happened since decades. Working more efficient. Waste less. Better organisation. Faster working. Labor in shifts. Computers. Automation. Larger scale operation. Larger machines. And so on.
BUT there is a problem. Fiatmoney. It's very cheap to produce. Cotton+ink. Free choice of amount zero's. Electronic money. Almost zero-cost. Improving production is clearly much harder.
So, for the producing population part, it's a constant losers game.
So, dollars and euro's devalue continually.
The new dollars and euro's flow like a wave throughout the economy.
The first that swap them for products/services, do so at lower older price levels.
The spending itself, causes the price levels to increase.
The last that swap them for products/services, do so at the higher newer price levels.
Here, we arrived at a CRUCIAL element: ORDER.
Why crucial? Because this is the determinating element whether you are closer to the winning or closer to the losing edge of the inflation wave.
Here, an economical world war is being fought, between the parasiting part of the population and the producing part of the population.
The goal of the parasites is to PREVENT the producers from buying products/services TOO SOON.
In order to achieve this, a range of economical war-instruments are used, that are based on direct legal force (government) or indirect legal force throughout granted privileges (ex. bank/central bank/institution).
Examples:
1) Intrest rates / limits (max limits on bank saving accounts forced by govt on banks, tax deductability for some debt)
2) Intrest rates / manipulation (national/central bank forced inter-bank intrest rates such as LIBOR)
3) Intrest rates / artificial buying of bonds in order to make the government/institutional debt easier/cheaper to pay off.
4) Intrest rates / rates spread manipulation, being the masquerade that is disguising the brutal counterfeiting.
5) Specific market and marketwide interventions in order to control price levels of products that are speculated upon by the producing part of the population as an attempt to evade the fiatmoney-based theft by the parasiting part.
6) A level of operation that is much bigger than the level that the producing+speculating population part operates on (upto the superlevel, being a total Adolf Hitler-style manipulative control of the entire world market, known as 'megaeconomics' - see Google).
At some point, the parasiting part of population exceeded the limits present at the given historical time frame.
That point is where Depression, and all its consequences, starts.
With 5), we arrived at our silver case.
TRADING BEHAVIOUR
As aboves intro explained, it's not the metal that is going to preserve your wealth.
It's your trading behaviour.
Because the parasiting population part ALSO buys silver.
And not to protect their wealth, but to inflict you an already INFLATED price AHEAD of other prices.
FRONTRUNNING, a vampiric drain upon the market.
An easy job, and winning, exclude eachother.
Just buying silver as soon as you earn dollars or euro's, regardless silver price, is the easiest method.
And therefore, it is the losing method. Especially during a crisis, where big price cycles magnify the errorlevels.
For the same reason, Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) is not much better. It's swapping a fixed amount dollars or euro's to silver, on a regular (ex. monthly) basis. Too easy.
For the frontrunners, experienced professionals, with lotsa first-hand and paid-for data and indirect privileges available, it's not hard to 'overcome' DCA.
The parasiting population part also SELLS silver.
Of course. They didn't want it in the first place, remember?
They only bought it to inflict the producing part of the population a higher price and thus less silver.
At carefully chosen moments - when they think alot doubt/concern is present, they dump it again. FRONTRUN in selling.
Bad trading behaviour also happens after that.
First, stackers buy at inflated silver prices, wasting their earnt dollars or euro's.
Then, instead of buying after the frontrunners dumped, they sell.
In order to avoid this bad trading behaviour, one has to understand what is going on on the market, and why.
The 'why' was aboves INTRO. What is going on, is next.
Several things are going on, and their effects propagate just like the earlier inflation wave.
The list has a bottom-up order, local silver market - intrinsic things first, macro economical things last.
THE SILVER MARKET
The silver market, just like any, has several sides. Alot, if not all, influence eachother, so don't consider a specific side as the single story-maker.
These sides distinguish themselves by their incentives and the way they buy silver, the two often having a close relation.
1) Industrial supply (mines/recyclers)
2) Investment supply
3) Industrial/medical/photographic/etc non-investment demand
4) Silverware/jewelry (could be seen as semi-investment demand)
5) Coins/finished bars investment demand
6) High-tolerance 'rude' 1000 ouncers investment demand geared towards derivatives/electronic/paperbased investment trading (alike Comex futures contracts and Exchange Traded Funds).
Since price changes origin from market changes, elimination is possible of elements that change in a little/neglectable degree in comparison to other elements.
http://www.silverinstitute.org/site/supply-demand/
1) The industrial supply is stable enough to allow elimination (keep in mind, this is a moment/period based statement, no universal rule, it is possible that it becomes prominent, alike the discovery and exploration of America as continent and the silver deposits there once did over a century ago. But the likeliness is low.
Scrap recycling is also quite stable. In 12 years it went up only 30%, and most of it only from 2010 onwards, clearly showing that it was caused by the higher silver price, meaning that the opposite will happen at an eventual again dropping price, thus a net neglectable effect in the general longer term time frame.
2) The investment supply has gone throughout major changes in the past decade.
It could be said that the effect of America's silver deposits discoveries and exploration phased out.
Mining there became as hard as it became elsewhere in the world.
And also the sales of the consequential government/institutionals stock finished.
Until 2007 or so, there was a long lasting industrial supply deficit that was compensated for by government/institutionals sales. This was what caused the flat silver price during decades.
From 2007 onwards, however, Exchange Traded Funds came into existence. These were a major game changer.
Allowing silver to be traded alike a stock, has some major benefits relative to delivered silver (as is named "physical" by some). No premiums. No proportional big storage mess/cost. No tax on the purchasing of silver. Fast to get, fast to dump.
ETF's though, are a mixed story. While they have a good longer term reason to exist, they also serve as a High Frequency Trading environment for the frontrunners/parasiting population part. Without knowing who owns which amount shares/silver, it's hard to estimate their buy&hold fashion "degree".
Only experience can tell that, and since they came into existence almost together with the crisis, there is no experience. In 2011 they caused the price runup from $32 to $50 and back. But since, they show quite buy and hold "nature". For example, during 2012, only 7% of their stock was 'volatile'.
So their supply-changing effect and thus the price trend could be seen as neglectable since the 1,5 years after their crazy 2011 story.
Yet, it's not because something hasn't effect on the moment, that it should be ignored. The potential effect is present, and thus should be monitored as to know when the game is changing.
3) The industrial demand is much touted about, by many on many forums. Yet, the figures show that the amount, and thus its effect on the price, changes little. 2008 shows the same industrial demand as 2010 and 2011. 2009 was 20% less. Yet, the silver price tripled over the same period, clearly showing that industrial demand isn't the game changer.
Photography is declining for the obvious digitalisation reason. But most of the decline already passed, so it's not a game changer yet to come.
4) Jewelry is quite stable. Silverware shows a steady drop since the decade and has little room to drop further. As a price changer, it's a small, and phasing out one.
5) Coins. Shows a strong increase. More than a tripling in the decade. Certainly a game changer, especially since 2008, were most of the tripling started. It became a quarter of industrial demand.
6) Investment ETF/derivative demand. TheSilverInstitute measures it indirectly, an amount silver produced but not bought by the listed categories. Hence the 'Implied Net Investment'. Certainly a game changer. Even the biggest game changer.
Conclusion about what elements to look at?
Clearly 5) and 6).
Let's sum up the amounts since 2008:
5) 65.3+78.8+99.4+118.2=361.7 Moz or 1/3 of worlds annual supply.
6) 31.2+132.2+184.6+164=512 Moz or 1/2 of worlds annual supply.
This is the cause of the price tripling in the period 2008-2011.
So this makes clear what to watch in the silver market.
In order to maintain the $30 price level, this demand has to continue snooping up supply.
Take into account that the supply adjusts itself to demand too. Supply and demand are interacting along the price mechanism to an equilibrium. So the 'requirement' is some middle-way in the snooping up.
THE GOLD VERSUS SILVER MARKET COMPETITION
In real terms of value, gold and silver only differ in a practical way. Much like how a $50 banknote differs to a $5 banknote. You use the $50 note when bigger amounts, and the $5 note when small amount.
Since people do both big and small buys, and much more small buys than big buys, both metals have a place in this practical way.
Yet, there are some serious market differences that makes it much more than a practical choice.
Golds market has a large presence of the parasiting part of the population.
Alot 'professionals' rely on what is essentially a governments/central banks shaped situation.
It's clear that the parasiting part of the population 'promotes' gold relative to silver.
Just look at the Central Bank Gold Agreements, it's not a coincidence that they only started a mere decade ago, in the runup to this crisis.
They want to make gold appear as more 'reliable', more 'stable'. Because they possess large stocks of gold, and have thus a good control over its price.
Alot so-called gold buyers/stackers seem to use governments central banks behaviour / granted benefits to gold (alike tax exemption) as a motivation to buy gold.
And this is quite contradictional, upto even misleading.
Just think about it.
Gold is bought as a hedge against fiatmoney (dollar, euro, ...) creation/inflation, right?
Who causes that inflation?
Governments.
National/central banks.
How can you then chose a precious metal of which they control its price well?
Why do governments/national/central banks own gold anyway?
Remember they abandoned the gold standard?
Even the already bogus (it was a gold/dollar standard only redeemable by governments and its institutions, not by anyone else) Bretton Woods one?
Some use the argument that governments/central banks are NET BUYING gold as an argument to buy gold too.
That's even ridiculous, because when they are buying, they sustain or drive up the price, and inflict you LESS gold.
So then why do they have gold stocks?
The answer should be very obvious: to manipulate its price and thus its market. Central banks bank don't need gold at all. They print/electronically create the amounts fiatmoney they need. They have no problem buying back gold at ANY price, since they create the legal tender declared money to do so.
Those Central Bank Gold Agreements are so-called sales limits. No more than X tonnes sold over a period Y.
But there is a catch of importance: WHEN?
Take for example the International Monetary Fund, the IMF.
In 2008, the middle of the crisis, the hard hit of precious metal prices, when the NON professionals SOLD, the IMF BOUGHT instead. Near to 200 tonnes from the market.
Guess what happened to those 200 tonnes?
They SOLD it on the market. During 2010. In stages. Every month a fraction. To not disrupt the gold market.
Isn't that humor? They suppressed golds price uptrend during 2010. Likely the very reason for golds smaller price increase since 2008 (x2.2 versus silvers x3)
http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pn/2011/pn11121.htm
The IMF had 7 billion USD profits from these on-market sales.
191 tonnes is the equivalent of 61,407 gold futures contracts, the total at the moment is 188,659, so that's 1/3 of the Comex market side, not exactly something minor.
Every dollar origins from a gold speculator that anticipated on inflation due to QE's and decided to hedge along gold.
Now read the official 'why' of the gold sales of the IMF.
http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2009/pr09268.htm
It's to aid poor African governments.
It's to pay the IMF's administration bills.
The first joke in my post has yet to come.
Place these excuses in the bigger picture.
Central banks alike Federal Reserve and European Central Bank and many if not all others, created trillions fiatmoney since 2008. It was used to prevent numerous governments, banks, institutions and big companies from going bankrupt.
The IMF itself received its part of the big bucks. The role of the IMF was increased to a new dimension, with corresponding financing. Yet, they would have had to sell gold to bail out poor African countries as a middle man, and to pay its administration bills.
When I think twice about buying gold as to avoid legal theft by privileged thieves (that's what inflation is), it's clear to me that gold should be avoided.
Yet, there are hedgers buying it, they represent a demand / competition for silver, and they should thus be taken into account in this "What's Going On".
Alot buy silver as a inbetween step to gold. That means that if you chosed silver, you have to take into account their presence on the silver market. Because it's not a buy and hold longterm presence and thus a downward price protential in terms of purchasing power.
THE SILVER VERSUS FIATCURRENCY MARKET COMPETITION
This also applies to gold and any product that suits one or more roles of money (in our present case mainly the role storage of value).
Silvers value is, like everything, expressed in a fiatcurrency. If the fiatcurrencies value is 'watered' by cheapskate production of more of it, one can reasonably assume that people that experience the devaluation of their dollars / euro's search for alternatives. This is how competition works.
But unlike what some seem to think, this is not at ANY price. If the price of a given product A increased due to a demand that is NOT buy and hold fashioned, thus temporary, then silvers competitive advantage shrinks, because the potential and thus outlook on further price increasings, has decreased. Up to the opposite - downwards potential.
So this competitional element is like a balancing mechanism. When silvers price is 'bloated' like this, people may rightfully decide that the outlook of the fiatcurrency, while negative, is still better than silvers, because even more negative.
For the same reason, people sometimes even accept a negative intrest rate, alike in Germany for a while last year. Because the outlook of the alternatives was even worser.
So, based on your geographic location and thus local fiatcurrency, there are in this aspect (don't use it as a single judgement directive!) 'good' and 'bad' moments to buy silver.
If your local currency is "strong" relative to others, it is a 'good' moment to buy silver.
For example, my fiatcurrency is Euro, so it's a better idea to buy silver when the euro is strong / the dollar is weak. I bought most of my silver early 2011, when the Euro was strong. Of course not at any price. Remember the underlined sentence.
And vice versa, it's a worser idea if your local fiatcurrency is weak.
The rate of fiatcurrency devaluation is for a large degree determined by its creation rate. But ALSO by its subsequent spending rate. And this is something that apparently few are aware of.
We were and are overloaded with Quantitative Easings and Bailouts and government Bond purchases by central banks and other inflationary woohoo-talk.
But it's remarkable how little coverage the Excess Reserves had. If you don't search specific for this, you don't encounter them in any newspaper/media article. Alike they are not worth mentioning.
At the moment of my first and big silver purchases, I thought I had a good general awareness of the situation on the big currency markets. But this Excess Reserves I became only aware of early 2012.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/se … SE?cid=124
The Adjusted Monetary Base is the sum of currency (including coin) in circulation outside Federal Reserve Banks and the U.S. Treasury, plus deposits held by depository institutions at Federal Reserve Banks.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/se … NS?cid=123
Amount of funds held by a depository institution in its account at a Federal Reserve Bank in excess of its required reserve balance and its contractual clearing balance. Excess reserves equals total reserves less required reserves.
This makes clear that Excess Reserves are part of the Monetary Base.
What is also clear is that Excess Reserves moved from order a few billions to over thousand billions.
If I calculate this United State Dollar fiatcurrency case, it becomes clear that a mere 20% of all the dollars created since 2008, added to circulation, and were thus inflationary.
About the Euro fiatcurrency case, in august 2012, a similar storyline appeared.
http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/quickview.do?S … 3000.Z01.E
In juli 2012, Excess Reserves was less than 5 billion Euro.
In august 2012, it jumped to 400 billion Euro.
And also in this EU case, Excess Reserves is documented as part of the Monetary Base.
http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/quickview.do?S … T01.Z5.EUR
Base money [sum(L010 and L021 and L022)
- L010 Banknotes in circulation
http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/browseExplanat … 010.Z5.EUR
- L021 Current accounts (covering the minimum reserves system)
http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/browseExplanat … 021.U2.EUR
- L022 Deposit facility
http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/quickview.do?S … 022.U2.EUR
On the Dollar side, BASE is 2633 billion dollar. Excess Reserves is 1435 billion dollar.
On the Euro side, BASE is 1631 billion euro. Excess Reserves is 403 billion euro.
In 2008 ahead of the QE's, these BASE's were 875 billion dollar and 900 billion euro.
If we now calculate the actual spending, thus BASE minus Excess Reserves:
On the Dollar side, 2633-1435-875=323 billion dollar, which is 323/875=36,9% more than in 2008.
On the Euro side, 1631-403-900=328 billion euro, which is 328/900=36,44% more than in 2008.
In real terms, this means that we can expect to see general price increasings since 2008 of near to 40%.
Gold did +120% and silver did +200%.
This means that we should be very reluctant to pay more than todays price levels.
Those quick price rallies we see are the frontrunners buying back in in order to make you pay more and thus drain off your fiatmoney. NOT people that are buy and hold fashioned as a hedge against inflation.
My opinion is that the QE's are a scam. A trick to lure us into paying higher prices.
We have luck that the gold, and especially silver markets were and are relatively small compared to other markets. They don't need much inflow to bring higher prices. So the demand from stackers and ETF 'savers' may suffice to maintain todays price levels.
But as long as we don't see higher spending rates and thus higher general price increasings, we have the time to wait for moments/periods that the frontrunners dumped and are thus not reflected in the price.
This fiatcurrency competition was just another element to take into account. Again, NOT the single judgement directive.

THE FIATCURRENCIES MARKET AS A WHOLE.
There is an old strategy performed by the parasiting population parts of their respective time frames.
That is, taking out alternatives, as to destroy competition and to be able to continue unpunished.
In a multiple fiatcurrencies monetary market, the classical trick is a working-together of the parasites.
If dollar, euro, pound, yuan, yen, etc, would really compete, any single one that is inflated, would soon see its abandonment due to the producing part of the population refusing them as payment(a phenomenon known as hyperinflation). And in a scenario that became the rule instead of the exception, such event would soon also lead to simultaneous stories in the other fiatcurrency markets.
So, the governments, central banks, and their interest groups, work together to avoid this competition.
This is done by manipulating exchange rates,currency swaps, and other secondary supporting measures.
The prime goal of all this, is to avoid any single fiatcurrency weakening too much relative to other fiatcurrencies. In other words, blocking those EVIL speculators (they mean the non-sheeps among the producing part of the population, alike us, silver stackers) from becoming too successful.
This cooperation happens on the marketwide, the macro economical level. They manipulate prices and rates along High Frequency Trading markets, by buying and selling in a frontrunning fashion because they make the big central planning decisions themselves so they know ahead of all the rest what is next. Essentially the price trends / rates are thus forced, without the force being too visible. That is crucial because failing to remain hidden as real causes, would soon end in too many people linking the two ends in the chain of first cause to last consequence, in other words: being busted.
Since World War II, as a successor to the Marshall Plan that demanded governments to spread the dollars evenly, they attempted such macro economical manipulation in the European Union, it was named the 'Werner Plan' according to the name of its author that was a politician and top banker at that time. His method was named 'Snake In The Tunnel', because on a chart, the floating but inter-limited individual EU currencies appeared as snakes in a tunnel. It was an early (and failed) attempt towards an EU wide monetary competition-killer. It failed because the central planning lacked control of too many elements, causing its EU influence zone to shrink, ultimately to only a few central countries, until it was given up altogether.
Nevertheless, the Euro DID became reality. And it brought the control level they need for this macro economical goal. In a mere decade, they succesfully spreaded their inflation uniformly over the entire EU.
And there we have it. Uniformly. The crucifix of killing competition.
Take a look here:
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=w1
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=6E&p=w1
See the fluctuations? Those are the 'snakes'.
Draw lines between all tops.
Draw lines between all bottoms.
See how straight the resulting lines are? Those are the 'tunnels'.
Their goal?
To spread their inflation uniformly over the dollar+euro world.
Now scroll abit back in my post here, to the bold tagged percentages.
See how similar they are? 36,9% versus 36,4%. Coincidence? No. It's the uniformly spreading of their inflation.
This is the superlevel at which the parasiting part of the population operates.
They do their best to block us, speculators, producing part of the population, from routing out/dumping their crap.
And it's not easy to defeat them.
They will only lose if we improve our trading behaviour.
Instead of competing with eachother, trying to get our gains/inflation hedge by inflicting fellow stackers a loss, we should work together against them.
And this, is the reason for this topic.
MARKET DATA USED TO ACCOMPLISH BETTER TRADING BEHAVIOUR
Next is a list sources where key silver-relevant market data is available.
>>> Inflation-related:
USD monetary base: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/BASE.txt
Component EXCRESNS Excess Reserves:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/EXCRESNS.txt
Euro monetary base: http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/quickview.do?S … T01.Z5.EUR
Component L010 Banknotes in circulation:
http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/browseExplanat … 010.Z5.EUR
Component L021 Minimum Reserves System (the 'fraction' of the fractional reserve system.
http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/browseExplanat … 021.U2.EUR
Component L022 Deposit Facility:
http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/quickview.do?S … 022.U2.EUR
Excess Reserves:
http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/quickview.do?S … 3000.Z01.E
>>> Futures market-related:
Futures market trends in 4 time resolutions:
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=w1
The green trend below is the total net position.
It reflects the share that the futures market has in the spot price.
The goal for a stacker is to try to pick out moments where they have the lowest position.
*Reminder* ALSO take into account other silver relevant elements.
*Reminder* Do NOT use this specific element as the single directive.
Comex Futures market Commitment of Traders report (a weekly report, where finviz.com gets the data):
General data access page:
http://www.cftc.gov/marketreports/commi … /index.htm
Previous COT reports:
http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/Commi … /index.htm <-
Last COT report:
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm
Comex Futures market silver stocks (updated every market day):
http://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_report … stocks.xls
>>> Exchange Traded Funds-related:
Sprott Physical Silver Trust (Inception Date 29/10/2010):
  http://sprottphysicalsilvertrust.com/NetAssetValue.aspx (sometimes fails to work)
  or
  http://sprottphysicalbullion.com/sprott … set-value/
IShares Silver Trust (Inception Date 21/04/2006):
  http://us.ishares.com/product_info/fund … ew/SLV.htm
  Bar list: https://ebts.jpmorgan.com/metalicsWebAp … NY_SLV.pdf (warning: big file).
ETF Securities Physical Silver(Inception Date 24/07/2009):
  http://www.etfsecurities.com/msl/silver_bar_list_us.zip
  http://www.etfsecurities.com/msl/bar_list.zip
Central Fund of Canada (Inception Date 14/09/1983):
  http://www.centralfund.com/Nav%20Form.htm
Zürcher Kantonalbank (Inception Date 16/01/2009):
  http://www.zkb.ch/etc/ml/repository/tex … f.File.pdf
BlackRock Silver Bullion Trust Inception Date (7/15/2009):
  http://www.claymoreinvestments.ca/claym … und/svr.un
>>> Delivered silver-related:
US Mint sales:
ASE & AGE: http://www.usmint.gov/mint_programs/ame … &year=2013
AGB: http://www.usmint.gov/mint_programs/buf … &year=2013
Perth Mint sales (requires digging through blog, if anyone knows original source, if any, please share):
http://www.perthmintbullion.com/blog/blog
Some sources show historical data.
Others don't. In those cases you have to log it yourself.
I log it all, in case data becomes unavailable.
By monitoring this data, you can pick out the best moments to buy silver.
For example, suppose you see the Comex total position and the silver price increasing fast.
With no other things changing, it means that it's best to suspend stacking.
Because nobody buys silver as a futures contract to keep it as longterm hold fashioned.
If they really wanted the silver, and thought todays price was a bottom price, they'd buy the silver directly, instead of a futures contract. It's for a reason that the by far big majority of the futures contracts never gets delivered.
I use stock trends as shorter term price predictors.
Fiatcurrency creation&spending trends I use as longer term price predictors.
Both methods complement eachother.
The same applies to the superlevel method.
Example:
End juli I noticed on finviz.com that the Euro "snake" was approaching its lower "Tunnel" edge.
That means that it becomes very likely that the central planning is gonna take action to avoid it leaving the tunnel, and thus becoming "too weak" relative to other fiatcurrencies, and thus attract speculation "attacks".
So I decided to swap my remaining euro's (I already bought quite some junk since the $27-28 price level was already present since months) into bullion from a couple dealers since no time left to wait for good priced junk.
And indeed, mid august, the EU side of the parasites brought the next big decision, causing the Euro Snake to revert away from the lower tunnel edge.
I have logged above data since april 2012. Before I didn't actually log, I just checked now and then, on the fly.
POST NOTE
This post was created due to several PM based questions for a complete explanation putting it all together.
I don't know if above meets that criterium.
I don't know if it's coherent.
I put some effort in it.
If it doesn't, shrug and move on.
For those that can follow most of it: concordia res parvae crescunt.
Regards.
Don't just stack at any spot price. First understand the situation on the (silver) markets.
http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic- … entum.html
User avatar
Indiana Jones
Freegold Member
Posts: 4765
Joined: 05 Oct 2011, 16:00
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Re: Hooimijt februari 2013

Post by Indiana Jones »

Stepup wrote:INTRO ..................etc.
Een enorme lap tekst met diverse links ertussen waarin ik niet echt een verband kan ontdekken .... maar begrijp ook het nieuws niet dat je wilt brengen en zie ook niet wie die intro nu precies schrijft (vloeit dat uit jouw pen?)

please explain ..... ;)
Everything that needs to be said has already been said.
But since no one was listening, everything must be said again.
User avatar
Spruitje
Freegold Member
Posts: 2589
Joined: 19 Oct 2011, 01:34

Re: Hooimijt februari 2013

Post by Spruitje »

Even google gebruiken. ;)

Rechtstreekse kopij van een post van op het silverstackers-forum.
Study while others are sleeping; work while others are loafing; prepare while others are playing; and dream while others are wishing.
- William Arthur Ward -
Stepup
Posts: 13
Joined: 04 Jan 2013, 09:20

Re: Hooimijt februari 2013

Post by Stepup »

Ja sorry, inderdaad wat spruitje schrijft. Maar toch een knap stuk om over na te denken.
Van een landgenoot troiwens.
Een hele brok ik weet het. Msch had ik beter gewoon de link gebracht? :)
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