Hooimijt December 2014

[Spruitje]

Smiley leek me toch overbodig.

Leven en laten leven.

[Dirkgold]

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article48586.html

We here at Elliott Wave International are goldbugs because we believe that gold—as it has been for centuries—is true money.

In the context of our report, which came out two trading days after gold's recent low, we were referencing goldbugs as investors who were never going to turn bearish on gold; people who were forecasting $5,000/oz, $10,000/oz gold. Eventually, we'll probably get there, but nothing is straight up.

We're trying to take a more pragmatic approach, a tactical approach based on what the waves tell us. For example, sentiment, which is a big part of the gold sector, had gotten very extreme. Several days before gold hit its all-time high in September 2011, the Daily Sentiment Index, put out by trade-futures.com, moved to a record high of 96% on a five-day average. That means virtually all the traders thought gold was going higher. To us, this extreme ebullience was consistent with a high. Fast forward to today, the Daily Sentiment Index of traders had fallen to a record low of 5%. That was significant.

For small traders, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) tracks futures and options traders. The weekly Commitment of Traders Report chops the market into three cohorts: small traders whose positions are so low they really don't have to report to the CFTC; the large speculators; and the commercials, or the insiders. Each cohort moves in its own ways.

For example, when gold was at $1,800/oz in October 2012—which was a countertrend rally high, in other words a lower high than it was in 2011—small traders had moved to the greatest net long in 11 years in futures and options. Even though gold was not at a new high, the small traders were more bullish than they were at the high. Now, small traders have gone from that October 2011 largest net long in 11 years to recently having their largest net short position in 15 years. Gold is down 37% and the small traders are betting it's going to continue to the downside. Just as they were wrong in October 2012, we think they're going to be wrong here at this low.

TGR: Based on that, what is your target price for gold in 2015?

SH: I think a reasonable target price is in the $1,440–1,525/oz range. We'll be able to refine that as we see the wave structure unfold and do our internal calculations. Based on what the Elliott Waves are showing, I think this is a countertrend rally.

[doubleyou]

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The weekly chart shows the bear trap and suggests the bullish dynamics of a triple bottom.



Misschien dat er waarheid in zit in die berenval, misschien niet...
maar daar het natuurlijk om een dollargrafiek gaat, doet het eigenlijk niet ter zake

Fijne (werk)week !

België ziet er op 15/12 alvast zo uit :
Vanaf vanavond ligt het land plat door de nationale staking: dit mag je de komende 24 uur verwachten
http://newsmonkey.be/article/26587

Iemand speelt met een dikke knipoog op de "talk of the day" in...het hoeft niet altijd om een nippleslip van een bekend iemand te gaan, die op een "handige" manier het nieuws wil halen
"stakingsbreker" wordt te koop aangeboden
http://newsmonkey.be/article/26479

[Dirkgold]

by erewenguy :
My "Duh" Moment - Gold / Silver / Copper Ratios
As a “thoughtful investor” I’m diversified. I got paper. I got dirt. I got stuff. All good there, considering my lot in life. Not quite a Rockefeller, not quite a shoeshine boy. Kind of in-between. But I want to buy just a little more metal, just because there are some things that are not making a lot of sense to me.

We get hammered with a lot of confusing information on where to allocate our assets - gold or silver? We are told that gold is the premier monetary asset held by Central Banks. Silver, on the other hand, falls into a sort of sloppy class, a monetary/industrial metal, too bulky and not really suited for large, serious investors. Central Bank revaluation will only take place in gold, we are told.

So, doing what any thoughtful investor might do, I put my finger to the side of my chin and say "Hmmmm."

This morning I read Holter's comment under his latest article saying silver is the most undervalued asset. Listened to David Morgan's interview linked above saying silver should be priced at $100. I read SRSRocco's estimates that compared to oil, silver should be priced at $50.

So I say to myself, "Hmmmm." (Thoughtful investors say that a lot.)

But, we are told that the price of gold and silver are both manipulated. The Chinese warehouse shell game is telling us that the copper price is manipulated too. So what might the real price of these metals actually be?

I’m going to conveniently ignore platinum and palladium and just focus on gold, silver, and copper. These represent a “monetary” metal, an “industrial” metal, and the poor unwanted metal in-between.

Silver is a co-product of both gold and copper mining, which makes sense when you look at the periodic table of the elements. Not that these metals aren’t associated with other mined metals, but “like” stuff tends to be found near each other underground. That’s convenient, not only from a practical mining point of view, but for the purpose of determining relative value.

I’m going to take the most simplistic assumption that I can to compare the value of these three metals – that their value is relative to how much is dug out of the ground. Ignore price manipulation, industrial usage and attrition, and investment cachet. Dig it out of the ground and if it’s common, it’s cheap. If it’s rare, it’s more expensive.

How absurd, you murmur. How naïve, you might titter.

Ignoring the nay-sayers, I searched the internet far and wide to find how many metric tons of gold, silver, and copper are mined each year (actually, I used the first number I found) and plugged it into my trusty spreadsheet. After converting the current values of gold and silver in troy ounces and copper in pounds to values per metric ton, it became pretty simple to compare production ratios to value ratios.

Long story short – the production and value ratios of gold and copper are pretty similar. Gold is about 6500 times more rare than copper and is about 6500 times more expensive. That in itself was quite a revelation to me, given the vastly different uses of these two metals.

Not surprisingly it was the ratios involving silver where the imbalances showed up. The gold/silver imbalance is pretty well known. Out of the ground, gold is about 12 times more rare than silver but is valued about 75 times more than silver. The silver/copper ratios are also whack. Silver is about 580 times more rare than copper, but only valued about 80 times the price of copper. Compared to both gold and copper, silver is undervalued by about 6 ½ times.

If we assume the production and value ratios of gold and copper are “real” relative to production costs, then for parity the “real” value of silver must rise to about $95 to $100/toz. However, if the value of silver is “real” relative to production costs, then likewise, the “real” price of gold must fall to about $200/toz and the “real” price of copper must fall to about 40 cents/lb.

What is a thoughtful investor to do with this information, other than to say “Hmmmm.”

[Indiana Jones]

[Spruitje]

Krijgen de Belgen, Oostenrijkers, ... hun goud van de Russen?

[doubleyou]

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The Federal Reserve said it would take a "patient" approach toward raising interest rates, CNBC reports.
Fed Reserve Chair Janet Yellen announced that the Fed was unlikely to hike rates for "at least a couple of meetings"-- which means April of 2015.
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Gold Ends Higher On Fed Stand, Stays Below $1,200
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From Europe, the Swiss National Bank decided in an unscheduled meeting to cut interest rate to -0.25 percent.
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Ze zijn er al : de eerste vooruitzichten voor 2015
Gold: The Year Ahead
After some three years of disappointment, 2015 promises to be a good year for gold investors
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1418929948.php
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[Indiana Jones]

After some three years of disappointment, 2015 promises to be a good year for gold investors
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1418929948.php
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And so did 2012; 2013 and 2014 .... but did they

[cavajo]

After some three years of disappointment, 2015 promises to be a good year for gold investors
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1418929948.php
.

And so did 2012; 2013 and 2014 .... but did they

heb wel het gevoel dat 2015 een pak volatieler zal zijn dan de vorige jaren.
up, of down, het zal kansen bieden.

[Indiana Jones]

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