Goud en Zilvermijnen

[Leo3.14]

Krijg er kop noch staart aan.

De mijnen geven aan dat deze beweging in de goudprijs een scheet in een netzak zal zijn imo.
Ik verwacht een lagere top (< 1920$) én een lagere low in $ (binnen 3 jaar)
Wat niet wil zeggen dat sommige mijnen intussen geen nieuwe highs kunnen gaan zetten (RGLD/FNV/usa.to/ea)

[Gwyde]

Een blogje geschreven dat alle elementen samenbrengt: het klinkt coherent. Maar niets zegt dat het daardoor ook juist is...

Euro-gold: a foreign perspective on the recent rally

[Gwyde]

Miners have been underachieving during the ongoing precious metals rally and any minor hick-up for the yellow metal spurs another sell-off among miners. Compared to the 2016 top level (not yet equalled in 2017), gold is 3.4% lower. However the HUI miners index is 27.2% beneath its 2016 top. If the 7.2% is justified by the gold price difference, 20% are due to sentiment change and external factors, such as perceived dollar strength or expected further dollar weakness. Since last week gold is down almost 2%, while the HUI slid 4.5% making HUI/Gold ease to 0.156. The gold miner pulse page tells you more.

On the miners performance page declines do not only outnumber advances, also the average performance is down 2.33%, comparable to the 2.87% slide of the HUI since Sept 1. This is rather bleak since gold is almost stable (-0.39%) over that period.

Our contributor driven junior miner and explorer spreadsheet still posts a 10.4% long term gain. Including exits that deteriorates to a 29.5% decline. Last week there was a general decline among all 14 list picks. Only eliminating Miranda Gold (as announce last month - posting of Aug 26) provides some technical support, thereby avoiding a major weekly loss.

[Gwyde]

Since last week, precious metals continued weakening. Gold gave up the $1300, closing at $1297.1 down 2.89%. Silver slid 4.73% to $16.98. Among PGM's only palladium could limit the damage to 1.1% at $914, while platinum was slain: down 4.73% to $931. The platinum-palladium price inversion may be imminent.
The HUI index slid over 5% last week with HUI/Gold now down to 0.152. The gold miner pulse page tells you more.

Among our ETF benchmarks declines vary between 1.6% for GOEX to 2.9% for GDX, significantly less cumbersome than what the HUI decline suggested. Our contributor driven junior miner and explorer spreadsheet seems having been in a sweet spot, recovering 0.6% over the week to a long term advance of 11.1%. Advances (7) were leading declines (6) with Liberty Gold flat over the week. Pretium recovering over 7% makes the difference; among declines, B2Gold gave up its long term gain and now quotes fractionally below its entry price. Over the long haul, the number of advances now balances that of declines.

Note that including exits, our list performance stands near -30% which is the comparison to make with the (even much worse) long term declines on the ETF's.

[Gwyde]

World focus shifts from Rocket man to the US screwing up its relief aid to Puerto Rico and Spanish authorities screwing up credibility after disproportionate violence in disturbing the ongoing referendum in Catalunya.

Meanwhile stock markets are strengthening while precious metals are giving way. Over the week, gold eased 1.36% to $1279.4 while silver is off 2.06% to $16.63. Among PGM's the announced Platinum-Palladium price inversion took its course with Pt down 2.26% to $910 and Palladium advancing 1.53% against the trend to $928.

Precious metal miners could have been off worse: the HUI eased 1.5% over the week to 196.5. The ratio HUI/Gold is flat at 0.153. You find more graphs on the Gold Miner Pulse page: notably silver miners remarkably may have found a bottom, relative to the weaker silver price. The HUI index is less undervalued compared to its HUI/gold linear regression (-21) than where is was with gold above $1300 (trough at -38). Mining investors never really believed in $1300 gold. The miners' performance page always shows the complete picture: with the long term average and median loss aggravating. Last few weeks declines also keep outnumbering advances.

Contrary to last week, most mining ETF's have a hard time catching up with the HUI. The larger ETF"s GDX and GDXJ slid over 2% while SIL limited its weekly loss to 1.4%. Our contributor driven junior miner and explorer spreadsheet is well among the squad with a 1.68% decline, cutting its long term advance to 9.31%. The number of declines lead advances by 9 to 5. B2Gold recovered and rejoins long term advances: over the long haul we now have advances (8) leading the number of declines (6). MAG silver and Ivanhoe mines (both long term advances) caused the major drag on the list, while Oceana Gold and B2Gold were leading advances.

[Gwyde]

American stock markets indexes keep posting historic highs: Dow 22K, S&P above 2500, Nasdaq Comp near 6600 about 30% higher than its Y2K bubble peak... joined by the cryptocurrencies also inflating into bubble territory.

Meanwhile there is little or no interest for precious metals. Gold ends off the Thursday low, yet still down 0.26% for the week. Palladium has been volatile for the week, yet ends on a weak spot, down 1.5%. Nevertheless, the $934 Thursday close was a fresh 16+ year high. The current Platinum-Palladium price inversion had not been seen since autumn 2001 either. Silver and Platinum are the first to post a timid weekly gain. Candidly, Rhodium has risen to the second most expensive precious metal (bid now at $1125). During summer 2016 Rhodium was the notorious laggard, sliding to $585 (barely more than half its current price) shortly after gold peaked in August 2016.

Against the backdrop of precious metal weakness, the stock market ghost rally extends into the precious metal mining space. The HUI is up 2.85% over the week, making HUI/Gold firm to 0.159. You find the usual updates on the gold miner pulse page. This doesn't however make miners overvalued, but the extreme negative residuals of the HUI relative to its HUI/Gold regression estimate makes place for an almost market neutral reading (-12).

Weekly advances for the miner ETF's are within narrow boundaries: from +2.7% (GDX) to +3.0% (SIL). Our narrow (14 components) contributor driven explorer and junior miner spreadsheet has beaten the market this week, adding 5% to a long term advance of 14.76%. Advances outnumber declines 11 to 3 on the list, with a few double digit gains making the difference. Despite correcting on Friday, the 9.8% weekly advance of Ivanhoe Mines is quite influential, given the excellent long term advance, hence high weight. Pretium confirms its uptrend. The highest percentage rallies have been for Continental Gold and Argonaut Gold. However those two picks still have some work to do before breaking even.

The list has been weeded out from about 20 picks to 14. Now I've got an 'incubator list' of possible explorer picks for which I would appreciate any comments, critics and/or appraisals:

Auryn Resources (AUG.TO)
Aurania Resources Ltd (ARU.V)
ASA Gold & Precious Metals (ASA)
Evrim Resources Corp. (EVM.V)
Gold Standard Ventures (GSV.V)
Corvus Gold Inc. (KOR.TO)
Midland Exploration Inc. (MD.V)
Nighthawk Gold Corp. (NHK.TO)
NOVO Resources Corp. (NVO.V) - the inevitable, yet it got very expensive by now...
TerraX Minerals (TXR.V)

[Leo3.14]

Jawadde : impressionant, die explorers.
Merci Gwyde !

De Austrlische goudmarkt staat 'on fire' reeds : NVO...: een nieuw NVDA-ke in de maak

Da 's een goe teken mannen.
De smartmoney comes in :
De low staat er, we gaan heel langzaam vertrekken.zij-opwaarts, maar vooral zijwaarts.

Technisch ligt Aug er mooi bij met mooie volumes :
Canada + Peru.

ik ga deze in port steken begin 2019.
Voor mij voorlopig geen mijnen meer tot het 2019-fib-keerpunt

[Gwyde]

Precious metals have been rallying: not only did gold regain $1300, silver has been strengthening to $17.41 with the Au:Ag ratio finally easing a little: silver stopped lagging gold which typically is a good sign. Palladium overtook platinum and is on its way to reaching $1000 for the first time since 2000. Rhodium continues its stealth rally and seems on its way to beat gold as the most expensive precious metal. The bid-ask spread for Rhodium is enormous ($100), with the ask now at $1300. Currently platinum is the more affordable metal in terms of average historic prices.

Miners chose to ignore the good-news show: the HUI index barely added 0.33% over the week, though the yellow metal rallied 2.34%. HUI-Gold weakens to 0.155. Similar conclusions for SIL relative to silver: also silver miners are lagging. You find more graphs on the gold miner pulse page. Fresh graphs on the linear regression of HUI relative to gold prove that residuals once more are plunging. As gold turned around after its latest slide, miners were anticipating the rally; as it materializes, they almost stay put in disbelief.

The miners performance page has been updated, with advances outnumbering declines since Sep 29. The average decline (since Nov 2010) was trimmed to 30%, though the median didn't quite follow suit. Performance disparity once more is increasing, with most of the miners in the top quintile firming, while the laggards in the bottom quintile can't make a turn-around.

Mining ETF's lag the metals as does the HUI. GDXJ is flat for the week, while GDX, SIL and GOEX make modest advances around 1%. Our contributor driven Explorer and Junior Miners spreadsheet selection is excelling with a 2.11% weekly advance. Nevertheless we have declines (8) outnumbering advances (6), but the 22.3% rally for Pretium (results beating forecast) makes the difference.

[Leo3.14]

Sinclair zijn supermijn in vrije val.
Staat net even 'hoog' nu als die van Cavajo.

Samen naar het stort.

Sinclair.jpg (137.96 KiB) Viewed 3672 times

Dow in spiegelbeeld.

Wrong sector, wrong time, eilaas.

Goudsector zal niet vertrekken voor 2019.
Wie kort volgt weet waarom: zijwaartse markt = geen richting, veel twijfel en veel verkoop bij de mijnen.

[Leo3.14]

Goldmoney :

Xau.to

James Turk zette hier zijn schouders onder.
Alternatief voor de bitcoin, ripples en ethereum ?

Grafiek lijkt veelbelovend....?