Haystack 2017

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Gwyde
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Haystack 2017

Post by Gwyde » 08 Jan 2017, 17:18

Steaming ahead into 2017

Precious metals have been rallying into 2017 ending on a soft spot on Jan 6. Gold ends the week at $1172.2, up 1.85% while silver added 3.53% to $16.44. The HUI index is up 7.58% to 196.58, making HUI/Gold firm to 0.168.

With a 8.36% advance, our Contributor driven Explorer and Junior Mining spreadsheet is outperforming both the HUI and GDX, but other benchmark ETFs do even better. The long term (blunt average) decline is mitigated to 8.39% while cap weighed the advance extends to 9.13%: on average small and mid-caps are better off than the few micro or nano-caps on the list.

Three picks (OSK.TO, OR.TO and BTG) climbed out of the red, improving the advance/decline balance to 9 against 10. No picks are down over the week, but Miranda Gold and Continental Gold are flatlining. Among the 7 double digit advances, Argonaut Gold makes the most impressive weekly gain (+29%), yet the stock still is down 62% since inclusion.

Best wishes and prosperous trading


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Mixed blessings

Post by Gwyde » 15 Jan 2017, 15:50

After a soft spot on Jan 06, precious metals have been firming on balance. Last week, gold added 2% to $1196, up 3.9% YTD. Silver adds 2.25% to $16.81, up 5.9%YTD. Mixed blessings: the HUI lags gold this week, up 1.39% for the week to 199.3. After its stellar performance, some 'relative correction' is not unhealthy: Au/Hui weakens to 1.666. You find fresh graphs of HUI/Gold on the Gold Miner Pulse blog page. On the Miners Performance page, a first 2017 update reveals a decent average improvement since end 2016.

Our Contributor driven Explorer and Junior Mining spreadsheet leaves behing the HUI and all benchmark ETF's. With a weekly advance of 6.45% we've been well off. There are 14 advances against 4 declines, with Miranda Gold flat over the week. Advances are led by Ivanhoe Mines IVN.TO (Turquoise Hill) with a 20% weekly gain. The long term decline is reduced to 2.48% while the cap weighed advance sweetens to 16.77% (+7.01%) thanks to advances of heavyweights Pretium Res and Osisko Gold.

Monday is Martin Luther King day, enjoy a short trading week on Wall Street.

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Inauguration rally

Post by Gwyde » 22 Jan 2017, 15:42

Trump supporters from the rust belts have shown up in front of Congress less massively than anticipated, leaving the National Mall sparsely crowded at the inauguration of the most controversial president in decades. Traders obviously were watching in a screen window, while the algorithms were counting words indicating what the market reaction was likely to be. After a lackluster week, precious metals rallied, with gold eventually up 1.17% for the week to $1210 and silver firming 1.49% on balance to $17.06. PGM diverged, with platinum (up 2.2% on Friday) unable to recover from the midweek slide, easing by -0.41% on balance to close at $978, while palladium took the lead, firming 5% to $787.

The HUI gold miners index adds 1.67% over the week with HUI/Gold almost steady at 0.168. You find fresh graphs of HUI/Gold and SIL/Silver on the gold miner pulse blog page. Benchmark ETF's are struggling to catch up with the HUI: GDX equals its 1.67% weekly advance, but GDXJ lags with a 0.95% advance, while GOEX comes in last with a 0.54% timid advance. SIL is up 1.5%, in line with the metal. For a second consecutive week, we're beating the benchmark: our Contributor driven Explorer and Junior Mining spreadsheet adds 3.59%, climbing above break-even to a timid 1% long term advance. We still have 9 picks advancing against 10 declining over the long haul. Last week's advances were led by IVN (Turquoise Hill, former Ivanhoe Mines), nanocap Miranda Gold and explorer Osisko Gold (OSK.TO).

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In opposite direction

Post by Gwyde » 19 Feb 2017, 11:18

American stock markets stay at lofty highs, yet more progress has been made for precious metals. Gold is more or less flat over the week ending at $1234.6 (+0.14%) with silver also ending almost unchanged at $17.95 (+0.11%). PGM's didn't hold on to Thursday's gains and end the week easing fractionally, Pt at $1001 (-0.8%) and Pd at $776 (-0.9%).

PM volatility has not favored miners with the HUI down 1.95% to 214.5, making HUI/Gold ease to 0.173. You find updated graphs on the gold miner pulse blog page. With HUI and gold moving in opposite direction, miner 'overvaluation' relative to the least square regression line is reduced.

Benckmark ETF's give way likewise, easing about 2%; only GOEX trades nearly flat over the week. With a 1.49% decline, our Contributor driven explorer & Junior Miner List is in line with its peers. The long term advance still stands at 12.48%, yet cap weighted that adds up to 35.76%. Only 5 picks were up over the week, while 13 are down with Miranda Gold flat. There still are 10 picks up against 9 down since list inclusion. Asanko Gold has been dissipating its accumulated gains and is nearing break-even. However, Oceanagold was last week's laggard down almost 11%.

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Miners and precious metals diverging

Post by Gwyde » 25 Feb 2017, 22:33

Dow 20K is behind us as the index is nearing 21K. American stock markets continue their ascent. This doesn't prevent precious metals from firming. Over the past week, gold is up 1.77%, while silver added 2%. Platinum recovered 2.33% after lagging for several weeks, while Palladiium confirms its contrarian stance easing 0.9%. I've been using 24hgold.com for PM prices, since the Kitco.com website has its technical difficulties.

Despite PM metals firming in tandem with the broad stock market, miners have been weaker: the HUI slid 3.8% making HUI/Gold plunge to 0.164, as illustrated by the HUI/Gold graph on the Gold Miner Pulse blog page. Several miners came in with 2016Q4 earnings in line with their own guidance but below market expectations. One may ask whether the latter are realistic considering where PM metal prices were a few months ago. Miners now trade 'gold market neutral', with HUI values almost on the HUI-gold least squares regression line. On the Miners Performance page, last update illustrates the first miner retreat of 2017.

Miner ETFs are weaker across the board, sliding from 2.35% (SIL) to 4% (GOEX).
With a 4.2% loss, our Contributor driven Explorer and Junior Mining spreadsheet is lagging.

Over the long haul, the advance shrinks to 7.78%, though cap weighed that amounts to 30.09%. (Note that including exits, we're in the red.) Despite easing only little, Asanko Gold slid below its entry level. We now have left 9 picks advancing against 10 declining. Last week declines outnumber advances 15 to 4 on our list, with 4 double digit declines; especially the 11.9% weekly decline of Ivanhoe Mines (IVN.TO) is hurting. We are overweight in this miner after it has been outperforming.

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Mining investors convinced the gold correction bottom is in

Post by Gwyde » 12 Mar 2017, 12:17

American stock markets reached a ceiling last Tuesday backing off to end the week fractionally lower. Precious metals continued their slide bottoming on Thursday with a modest Friday recovery unable to mend the damage.
Gold ended the week 2.41% lower at $1204.5, while silver shed 5.18% to close at $17.02 on Friday. PGM's also ended beaten up with a 5.52% plunge for Pt to $$941 and Pd slid 3.37% to $746. Another 25bp FED rate hike fully is factored in.

Mining investors are convinced the gold correction bottom is in: after Tuesday the HUI ceased leveraging down the gold slide, while the Friday recovery unleashed the bullish sentiment. On balance HUI/Gold is flat over the week - as shown on the gold miner pulse page - despite the yellow metal sliding till Thursday. Miner resilience in anticipation of a gold recovery brought the HUI once more above the HUI-gold least squares regression line. On the Miners Performance page, long term declines again crept into the top quintile.

Among benchmark miner ETF's declines are in line with that of the HUI (2.59%). Only SIL slid 4.8%, which again is less than the 5.2% loss of the white metal. Retreating only 0.57%, our Contributor driven Explorer and Junior Mining spreadsheet is eclipsing its pears. Over the long haul we just manage breaking even (+0.49%). Over the week the 6 advances (led by Osisko) partly offset the 13 declines on the list (with PLG the major drag).

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Climbing the 'wall of worry'

Post by Gwyde » 26 Mar 2017, 00:46

The gold recovery just may have run its course and the yellow metal is backing of its Wednesday high. The gold/silver ratio is back up to 70, so the white metal rally is even further away, not to mention Platinum which even is down over the week. Moreover the miners have been grinding lower for three consecutive sessions. OK, these are some 'capita selecta' illustrating the 'wall of worry' we need to climb.

The complete picture is that over the week gold still adds 1.15% to $1242.9, silver adds 2.13% to $17.74. Less enthusiasm indeed for platinum, yet off barely $1 to $962; however Pd rallied 4.13% to $807. In the margin, Rhodium (the notorious laggard in the 2016 precious metal rally) is firmly recovering. From its abysmal $585 low last summer (when gold was peaking), the rarest of precious metals now rallies to $910. It thereby even outperforms Palladium.

Even though miners have been grinding lower since Tuesday, the HUI still is up 1.94% since previous Friday, with HUI/gold now at about 0.16. You find fresh graphs on the gold miner pulse page. The Miner Performance Page also got a fresh update. Runner up Osisko Mining -one of the picks in our spreadsheet- now takes the lead from Arizona Mining.

The miner ETF's are a mixed bag, with GDX (+1.1%) lagging the HUI, yet GDXJ and GOEX even threading water; both down fractionally. With a near 3% advance, our contributor driven explorer and junior miner spreadsheet leaves behind its peers. Over the week we have 13 advances against 5 declines, with Eurasian Minerals flat. Ivanhoe Mines (IVN) (+9%) leads the upside, adding to its long term gains. Platinum group Metals slid another 7.8%, deepening its loss. Over the long haul our list is up 6.64%.

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YTD advance eroding

Post by Gwyde » 18 Jun 2017, 09:45

A mixed bag for American stock markets, with Nasdaq further sliding away from its ATH, the S&P holding ground over the week and the DJI keeps advancing modestly. Bond markets are better off, since the yield 10Y treasury continues easing to 2.16%. This seems to raise doubt on the growth of the American economy and question whether the hiking policy by the FED still makes sense: the yield curve is flattening, which typically is a recession precursor.

Much less enthusiasm for precious metals, with gold easing 1% to 1253.4 over the week. Silver slid 2.8% to 16.69. Platinum further eased 0.85% to $929 while Palladium is the usual outlier firming 0.35% to $864. Hence the fresh subject: Is a 'Palladium - Platinum price inversion' in the cards? Read the recent blog article on that subject.

The miner swoon last Wednesday causes major havoc, especially since the HUI has been grinding lower for 6 consecutive days by now. The weekly loss amounts to 5.16% with HUI/Gold weakening to 0.1482. Graphs on the Gold Miner Pulse page tell you more. Year-to-date the advance of the HUI has dwindled to 2.12%.

Among mining ETF's, SIL is the main victim, sliding 5% in line with the HUI. Our contributor driven explorer and junior miners spreadsheet didn't do much better weakening 3.43% over the week. Longer term we just stay above break-even by a 0.5% margin. Only 3 advances over the week against 14 declines. Mirasol protects us from worse, with a double digit advance. However its peer Miranda Gold slid double digits. PLG is getting deeper into trouble and I'm wondering if it should stay on the list...

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USD weakness ultimately supporting precious metals

Post by Gwyde » 23 Jul 2017, 18:33

American stock markets went slightly higher last week, with Nasdaq leading, while the narrow DJI disappointed, just about failing to break even. Precious metals rallied from their early July lows, with Gold up 2.12% over the week to $1254.1, while the heavily beaten up silver rallied 3.83% to $16.5. PGM's lag, with Platinum adding 1.63% to $934 and Palladium easing 1.53% against the  trend. With the greenback sliding to a 10 months low against the euro, international investors are less impressed by the PM rally. USD weakness ultimately starts supporting Precious Metals. In the mean time, US analysts obstinately point to the more dovish tone coming from the FOMC, discarding the possibility for a summer Fed funds rate hike.

Miners are outperforming gold, with the HUI up 3.16% over the week  and HUI/Gold firming marginally to 0.1529  as shown on the GMP page.  No euforia however, since the residual of HUI against the HUI/Gold regression line keeps sliding into the red.

Among Miner ETF's weekly advances vary from 2.35% for GDXJ to  3.85% for SIL, predictably responding favorably to the silver rally.  Our Contributed explorer and junior miner list is among the squad firming 2.49% on a comparable base to a long term gain of 11.72%. Whenever the term 'comparable base' enters comments, this implies there has been a list change: the previously announced acquisition of Integra Gold by Eldorado Gold Corp. was completed, resulting in the delisting of ICG.  The stock has been moved to the 'successful exits' tab.  Selling ICG in anticipation would have yielded a better return.

Over the week, there were 12 advances against only 2 declines, with 4 list components breaking even. Osisko Gold leads advances with a double digit rally.

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Could have been worse...

Post by Gwyde » 02 Oct 2017, 00:10

World focus shifts from Rocket man to the US screwing up its relief aid to Puerto Rico and Spanish authorities screwing up credibility after disproportionate violence in disturbing the ongoing referendum in Catalunya.

Meanwhile stock markets are strengthening while precious metals are giving way. Over the week, gold eased 1.36% to $1279.4 while silver is off 2.06% to $16.63. Among PGM's the announced Platinum-Palladium price inversion took its course with Pt down 2.26% to $910 and Palladium advancing 1.53% against the trend to $928.

Precious metal miners could have been off worse: the HUI eased 1.5% over the week to 196.5. The ratio HUI/Gold is flat at 0.153. You find more graphs on the Gold Miner Pulse page: notably silver miners remarkably may have found a bottom, relative to the weaker silver price. The HUI index is less undervalued compared to its HUI/gold linear regression (-21) than where is was with gold above $1300 (trough at -38). Mining investors never really believed in $1300 gold. The miners' performance page always shows the complete picture: with the long term average and median loss aggravating. Last few weeks declines also keep outnumbering advances.

Contrary to last week, most mining ETF's have a hard time catching up with the HUI. The larger ETF"s GDX and GDXJ slid over 2% while SIL limited its weekly loss to 1.4%. Our contributor driven junior miner and explorer spreadsheet is well among the squad with a 1.68% decline, cutting its long term advance to 9.31%. The number of declines lead advances by 9 to 5. B2Gold recovered and rejoins long term advances: over the long haul we now have advances (8) leading the number of declines (6). MAG silver and Ivanhoe mines (both long term advances) caused the major drag on the list, while Oceana Gold and B2Gold were leading advances.

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