Haystack 2014

English language haystack
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Gwyde
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Haystack 2014

Post by Gwyde » 07 Jan 2014, 10:45

Best wishes for 2014, :P :D

May the year to come bring (back) prosperity for all investors in precious metals.

Personally, I wish it will never be necessary to write a sequel to my previous posting:
"Anatomy of a gold miner bear market" : http://gwyde.blogspot.be/2013/12/anatom ... arket.html


Leo3.14
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Re: Haystack 2014

Post by Leo3.14 » 07 Jan 2014, 11:16

Couldn 't the chart of GFI and HMY be the blueprint for all the miners in the (near ) future ?
Nationalisation is looming.

If the SP and the other indices make their overdue correction one of these months,
gold will be hit again , no ?
Goud is een cyclisch metaal.

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Gwyde
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Re: Haystack 2014

Post by Gwyde » 08 Jan 2014, 11:22

GFI has spun off most of its SA mines in its subsidiary Sibanye. Though well cashed up for the near future, the mines Sibanye operates are high cost and may not be profitable any longer with gold prices where they are. Seems GFI has anticipated a potential nationalisation. If operational losses on its SA pits nearing exhaustion gets structural, nationalisation would imply socializing losses. It therefore ceases to be a threat and may even be beneficial in the long run.

On HMY, I have no opinion. I don't like that mining company.

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Gwyde
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Miners rally into second gear

Post by Gwyde » 12 Feb 2014, 11:30

The worst asset class of 2013 has metamorphosed into the high flyer of the first months of 2014. After a few weeks of hesitation, the gold miners rally gets into second gear. When evaluating miners relative to precious metals, the paradigm change is revealing itself. Throughout nearly the complete gold miner bear market, the main index for unhedged miners quoting on American exchanges (HUI) was losing ground relative to gold. Moreover it rarely even regained its declining 200 days moving average. The trend reversed and HUI/Gold now breaks above its 200 dma.

Continue reading at:

http://gwyde.blogspot.be/2014/02/miners ... -gear.html

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Gwyde
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Perseverance

Post by Gwyde » 21 Apr 2014, 17:10

Precious metals started off the short trading week with a bounce on Monday. This wasn’t the harbinger of what was to follow as we extended last week’s slide until the close on Maundy Thursday. Gold closed at 1294.6 and silver at $19.65, both ending at the down side of the fence. The graphs on the GoldMinerPulse page include all updates as of April 17. http://gwyde.blogspot.be/p/gold-miner-pulse.html
There is no escape from the downtrend so far, on the contrary. HUI/Gold firmly settles below 0.17: a level we were at heading off into 2014. Most of the gains of past recovery have vaporized. We’re back to square one.

Precious metals start off the new week extending their slide in thin markets (Easter Monday Bank Holiday across Europe). Once more flares of violence in the Ukraine are unable to inspire the gold longs, after they have faced the usual shenanigans driving down the gold price below its emerging recovery trend after the Crimean tension waned. The Syrian civil war has become a non-event in this perspective. For the crude price a different logic seem to hold as it resumes its uptrend well above $100.

As we see the gold shorts persevering, while celebrating the first anniversary of the gold plunge, it is time to take some distance and analyze some of the mechanism behind. I added my grain of salt checking out the intra-day gold price fluctuations over the long run. See: Failure of a rigging scheme (?) http://gwyde.blogspot.be/2014/04/failur ... cheme.html

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Gwyde
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Their last trump card:

Post by Gwyde » 22 Apr 2014, 23:14

The current circumstances in the precious metals markets are remarkably similar to those on June 28 of 2013.
  • 1.Gold put down a new low since the 2014 recovery faltered. But the yellow metal is cutting its intraday loss towards the close.
    2.Gold is playing it solo: though platinum group metals followed in the plunge, their recovery was swift and Palladium reversed to the positive, while platinum is breaking even by 4 pm and seems to evolve to a positive close.
    3.Silver reluctantly follows gold, but never was down more than a couple of cents.
More importantly: gold miners completely ignored the latest gold plunge. The NYSE Arca gold bugs index (HUI) makes a remarkable 1.54% progression today. Admittedly, the broad market sentiment is bullish as well.

Precisely the same happened on June 28 in 2013, when the HUI index bottomed two days before did the yellow metal. As Gold made a last overnight plunge below $1200 across Asian markets on June 28, its recovery was swift and it sent miners rallying.

Did gold shorters once more play the last trump card on their hand?

Leo3.14
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Re: Haystack 2014

Post by Leo3.14 » 23 Apr 2014, 11:31

Weekly MACD crossing to negative.
RSI weekly in a very poor condition.
Example given : AEM.

I hear funeral music.
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Goud is een cyclisch metaal.

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Gwyde
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Relative strength of gold pirces

Post by Gwyde » 15 May 2014, 11:04

Not a view on the common RSI technical indicator, which is designed for short term analysis, but on the 'big picture', spanning decades and going back to 1979.

http://gwyde.blogspot.be/2014/05/relati ... rices.html

With hindsight - knowledge on bull and bear markets for gold - it's easy to implement a set of thresholds that yield a superior return. I'm not sure if such is possible for any unknown market condition going forward... but you can give it a try.

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Gwyde
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Metals not equally precious investments ...

Post by Gwyde » 17 Aug 2014, 22:54

While speculators are focusing on price changes of the metal of their choice to set up a trade, the long term investor is better off studying the price changes over the long haul and the relative price changes of one precious metal to another. It is most common to compare gold to any other precious metal through e.g. a Gold-to-Silver, or Gold-to-Platinum ratio. This tells you how many ounces of the second precious metal one ounce of gold would buy.

Continue reading at: http://gwyde.blogspot.be/2014/08/metals ... ments.html

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Gwyde
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Turd Ferguson

Post by Gwyde » 10 Nov 2014, 12:24

Craig Hemke, who is commonly known with his nick Turd Ferguson in the on-line community, has thoroughlly reorganized the forum on his site.

All previous fora and threads are archived and have become read-only.
The active fora remaining are specifically aimed at two target groups: 'Traders' and 'Stackers & Preppers'

Facing a declining number of visitors and many of the fora left deserted or with only few active threads, the reorganization aims at concentrating posters belonging to the two target groups mentioned above. There almost seems a religious divide between those two categories when focusing on their extremes:
1) Among the 'traders' the slick Goldman Sachs commodity expert, having made his fortune in short-selling gold futures... and handsomely covering and moving long as the downward trend is losing momentum or when too many small speculators got in. :ugeek:
2) Among the 'stackers and preppers' you find the typical 'Tea Party Republicans' , having their countryside house reinforced and stacked with weapons, ammunition, canned food, a gasoline supply for years to come and -of course- their main assets converted to bullion gold and silver. They are fully prepared for the imminent demise of American Society and fully loaded up on whatever they expect to be out of supply soon after disaster strikes. :twisted:

You don't feel any affinity with either? Then you're like the majority of people, possibly also Turd who fears for the second scenario to develop, but continues as a financial adviser and hence trading for a living while the system holds together.

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